Author: William Winkeler

  • Market Recap: June 2025

    Month in Review 

    • Easing geopolitical and trade pressures helped to lift equities higher in June, as corporate fundamentals continued to show signs of improvement.  
    • The US Dollar (DXY Index) fell -10.8% for the year ending June 30th, marking the sharpest first half decline for the currency since 1973. This provided a boost to US investors holding international assets, as detailed below.  
    • The S&P 500 completed its recovery from its roughly -19% decline, making new all-time highs and standing at +6.20% YTD (S&P 500 TR Index). In June, US small cap stocks (Russell 2000 TR Index) and US large cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index) stocks rose +5.44% and +6.38% respectively.  
    • Long-term interest rates declined from highs during the month, which helped to push major bond markets higher. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond TR Index rose +1.54% during the month of June.  

    Income Opportunity in International Equities  

    International equity markets are enjoying a strong start to 2025, with the broad-based MSCI All Country World Ex-USA Index (“MSCI ACWI Ex-USA”) returning +17.90% in 2025 through June 30th. The depreciation of the US dollar has provided a significant boost to US investors holding US dollar denominated international exposure, adding over 9% to YTD 2025 results versus local currency international equities (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA Local Currency).  

    In addition to the benefits of currency diversification, there are attractive income opportunities for growth and income investors. The MSCI ACWI Ex-USA has a trailing dividend yield of 2.86%, compared the S&P 500’s trailing dividend yield of 1.28%. The S&P 500’s dividend yield is below its long-term average, reflecting underlying trends within the index. Within the S&P 500, only 14.7% of the Index has a yield greater than 3%, compared to 27.7% for the Russell 1000 Value and 45.8% for the MSCI ACWI Ex-USA Index. This largely reflects the increased concentration in more growth-focused sectors such as Technology and Communication Services within the S&P 500.  

    The currency diversification and higher dividend yield offered by international equities complements more growth-focused US equity exposure, a key tenant of maintaining diversified portfolios for long-term investors.  

    What’s on Deck for July?  

    • As of time of writing, there is an early July deadline for re-negotiating outstanding trade deals. Progress on trade will be followed closely by investors.  
    • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on July 29th and July 30th to decide any changes to policy and short-term interest rates. As of 6/30, there is a 21% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the July meeting. The so-called “dot plots” released on June 18th indicate the FOMC is expecting to cut rates by 0.25% twice in 2025.   
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Market Pulse Monthly: April 2025

    Month in Review

    • April was a volatile month for stocks, bonds and currencies as investors digested the implications of rapidly changing trade policies.
    • After hitting a high level for 2025 on February 19th, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19% through April 8th. The index recovered from those levels, ending April down just -0.68% for the month and ending April at -4.92% YTD.  
    • Other equity markets finished April on a stronger note, such as Developed International (MSCI EAFE NR Index) equities. The MSCI EAFE continued its strong 2025 through April, finishing the month up +4.58%, bringing YTD 2025 returns to +11.76%.
    • Outside of equity markets, the bond market recovered after a choppy start to April, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index finishing April +0.39%, illustrating diversification benefits from bond allocations in portfolios.

    US Dollar Decline

    One surprise in 2025 has been the US dollar and the price movements versus other major currencies. Unlike major stock and bond markets which have recovered from late March/early April, the US dollar continues to fall versus major currencies. The US dollar depreciating, while US stocks are down, is a shift in behavior over the past 15-20 years: the US dollar had largely strengthened during times of uncertainty. The decline of the US dollar has had a significant impact on equity markets already in 2025: year-to-date international equities have outperformed the U.S. by the largest margin since 1993 (roughly 14%). While international valuations were cheaper, the shifting economic outlook and change in the US dollar made significant contributions to strong results YTD for international equities.

    Investors are also weighing the impact of reduced international trade, something that is likely contributing to the US dollars decline. Any long-term reduction in trade could lessen demand for US dollars, another major long-term trend that could be shifting.

    What’s on Deck for May?

    • Earnings for the first quarter of 2025 will be reported through May, with investors focusing on forward guidance given the changes in trade policy in 2025.
    • The Federal Reserve meets on May 7th, but markets are not expecting any change to interest rate policy at this meeting.
    • Ahead of the July extension, investors will be monitoring for any new trade deals.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Market Pulse: Quarter 1, 2025

    The first quarter of 2025 has been a period of dynamic shifts in global financial markets, marked by evolving economic policies, heightened uncertainty, and increased volatility equity markets. In this edition of Market Pulse, we analyze key investment trends, including the broad rotation from growth to value stocks, the resurgence of international equities, and the stabilizing role of fixed income markets.

    Despite market volatility, history reminds us that corrections are a natural and expected part of long-term investing. The recent pullback in the S&P 500, while significant, aligns with historical trends, reinforcing the importance of diversification and disciplined investment strategies. International markets, buoyed by fiscal stimulus measures, have provided investors with new opportunities, while fixed income markets have continued their recovery.

    Looking ahead to the second quarter, trade and fiscal policy developments will remain critical factors shaping investor sentiment. By maintaining a strategic and diversified approach focused on their objectives, investors can navigate uncertainty and capitalize on emerging opportunities. On behalf of Confluence Financial Partners, we thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

    Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP®
    Chief Investment Officer

    Diversification Renaissance


    • Uncertainty around the implementation of new policies and softening economic data weighed on markets
    • S&P 500 had its worst quarter since 2022 and its first correction (> 10% decline) since October 2023, an event that historically happens roughly 1.5 years
    • This sparked a rotation away from Magnificent 7 and Technology stocks to Value and International stocks, with international stocks posting their best relative quarter in over 25 years

    What Happened in the First Quarter?


    Investors spent the first three months of 2025 digesting the implementation of new policies, along with a shifting outlook for the economy. While “uncertainty” is often over-used, measures of uncertainty around trade and outlook for the economy spiked to very high levels, as investors sought more clarity around tariffs and related trade policies. The increase in uncertainty, combined with some softening of economic data (for example a mild increase in unemployment), helped to drive the first correction (decline greater than -10%) in the S&P 500 since October 2023. Previous market leaders – the “Magnificent 7” growth companies in the S&P 500 Index, were hit harder than the rest of the market, falling roughly -15% during the quarter. Importantly for investors, other equity markets and fixed income markets provided diversification benefits in the first quarter, and S&P 500 earnings expectations for 2025 have remained largely stable.

    Diversification Means “You’re Always Having to Say You’re Sorry”
    The old adage for diversified investors was invoked frequently in 2023 and 2024, in an equity market led by a handful of US large growth companies. Early in 2025, diversified investors have had the chance to say “thank you”, as investors have rotated away from US large cap growth companies, into large cap value stocks, international stocks and bonds. Even within the S&P 500 Index, the Magnificent 7 Stocks fell roughly -15%, while the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 Index were flat for the quarter.

    Sources: Morningstar, Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, US Large Caps = S&P 500 TR Index, US Large Cap Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index, US Large Cap Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, US Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index

    The start to 2025 for international stocks has been one of the strongest in the past 25 years, as US investors benefitted from both rising foreign stock prices and the depreciation of the US dollar. International equities have been inexpensive but lacking strong fundamental catalysts, which began to change during the quarter. In Europe, Germany introduced a very large fiscal spending package to stimulate their economy, the largest in their history (exceeds the Marshall Plan and Reunification). The changing attitudes towards spending by European countries has been well received by investors.

    Results for fixed income investors continued the positive trend in the first quarter of 2025 as well. After the worst calendar year in its history in 2022 (-13.01%, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR index, data back to 1926), the bond index posted a gain of +2.78% in 1Q2025. This follows consecutive calendar year gains in 2023 (+5.53%) and 2024 (+1.25%). Interest rates have declined across the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield finishing the quarter at 4.23%, down from intra-quarter highs of 4.79%.

    Very Average Correction

    In the previous edition, we noted that 2023 and 2024 were very strong years for the US equity market “The strong year for the S&P 500: 57 new all-time highs and consecutive +25% calendar year gains, was thanks in very large part to the largest companies in the index.” Early in 2025, investors were reminded that volatility is a very normal and common feature of equity market investing. From February 19th, the S&P 500 fell over -10% in less than 30 days, making it the 11th fastest correction since 1928. Quickness aside, the frequency was very average – 60th correction since 1926, the first since October 2023, right on the historical average frequency. Investors may be wondering if this will turn into a bear market (a decline greater than -20%): while no one has a crystal ball, out of the 59 previous corrections since 1926, only 17 ended up turning into a bear market (roughly 29%). The S&P 500 recently experienced a bear market in October 2022.

    Source: First Trust, Bloomberg. Data from 4/29/1942 – 2/28/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.*Correction cycles are determined by identifying market declines in excess of the minimum declines noted above. The cycle ends when there is a recovery of the magnitude of the minimum decline needed for that correction size (i.e., a recovery of greater than 5%, 10%, 15% or 20%). After that recovery is noted, the algorithm begins searching for the next decline to start the cycle again. **Measures from the date of the  market high to the date of the market low. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance.

    Corrections and bear markets, along with normal intra-year declines, are the toll investors pay for the long-term results of equities. Since 1980, the S&P 500 TR Index has had average annual declines of roughly 14% every year but still finished the calendar year in positive territory 75% of the time. This illustrates the importance of staying invested during volatility and ensuring that your investment portfolio is aligned with your objectives and financial plan.

    What’s Ahead for the Second Quarter?

    Changes to trade policy are having a tangible effect on investor and consumer sentiment, with the potential to negatively impact economic growth. Both investors and the Federal Reserve are looking for greater clarity on how additional tariffs could be implemented, which will play a key role in any changes to the Federal Funds Rate in 2025. Within fiscal policy, any changes to tax policy in the United States are trending towards happening later in 2025, but developments there will be watched closely by investors. As discussed, international equities have benefitted from a strong fiscal impulse from Europe, with the implementation likely to be in focus during 2Q2025.

    Markets In Review

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap – February 2025

    Month in Review

    • After a positive start to 2025, equity markets were choppy in February following mixed economic data and increasing uncertainty.
    • In February, large cap stocks (S&P 500 TR Index) fell -1.30%, dragged slightly lower by large cap growth stocks (-3.59%, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index). Small cap stocks in the US also fell, with the Russell 2000 TR Index declining -5.35% in February.
    • Stock and bond markets were led by core bonds (+2.20%, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index), developed international stocks (+1.94%, MSCI EAFE NR Index), and large cap value (+0.41%, Russell 1000 Value TR Index) during the month.

    Broadening Participation in the Bull Market

    With two months in the books, early in 2025 investors have seen signs of broadening participation in the bull market that started in October 2022. From an asset class lens, developed international stocks (MSCI EAFE NR Index) are off to a strong start this year, rising +7.30%, compared to +1.44% for the S&P 500 TR Index. Value stocks are also leading growth stocks in 2025, with the Russell 1000 Value TR Index rising +5.05% versus large cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index) falling -1.69%.

    Early in the year, investors can also see a shift within the S&P 500 Index itself. After being responsible for over 50% of the calendar year returns in 2024, 2023, and 2022, the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks are trailing the rest of the index. In 2025, the S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks is up +3.2% YTD, and the average stock in the index is up +2.87% (S&P 500 Equal Weight TR Index), ahead of the overall index. One reason for this shift is the trade-off between the high valuations of the Magnificent 7 and the leveling-off of their earnings growth.

    Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The top 10 S&P 500 companies are based on the 10 largest index constituents at the beginning of each quarter. As of 2/28/2025, the top 10 companies in the index were AAPL (7.2%), NVDA (6.1%), MSFT (5.9%), AMZN (3.9%), GOOGL/GOOG (3.6%), META (2.9%), BRK.B (1.9%), AVGO (1.8%), TSLA (1.6%), and JPM (1.5%). The remaining stocks represent the rest of the 492 companies in the S&P 500.

    The largest companies in the S&P 500 are still expensive relative to their history at 27.3x forward earnings, even after seeing their valuations fall in 2025. Investors have started the year favoring opportunities with cheaper valuations, a trend that has helped diversified investors. 

    What’s on Deck for January?

    • As of February 28th, 97% of the S&P 500 had reported earnings for 4Q2024. Roughly 75% of the companies beat their earnings estimate and 63% exceeded their revenue estimates. Earnings growth for the quarter was a strong +18.2% year-over-year.
    • Investors will be watching for more certainty around the new trade policies being rolled out by the Trump administration.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: January 2025

    Month in Review

    • Markets started off 2025 on a positive note, led by a broader set of equity markets. For the month, developed international (MSCI EAFE NR USD) returned +5.26% and large cap value (Russell 1000 Value TR Index) returned +4.68%, leading all markets.
    • There were pockets of volatility during the month, caused by developments in artificial intelligence and changing trade policies.
    • Overall, diversified investors enjoyed January. Participation in the market broadened: the average stock (Equal-Weight S&P 500 TR Index) finished January +3.50%, ahead of market cap weighted index’s 2.78% return (S&P 500 TR Index). Large cap value finished +4.68% (Russell 1000 Value TR Index), ahead of large cap growth’s +1.98% return (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index).

    Stocks are Rarely Average

    Last year marked the second consecutive year the S&P 500 returned over 25%, making it only the fifth time since 1926 that the index has produced consecutive results of that magnitude. While there have been positive developments in 2025, the fact still remains that the S&P 500 is very concentrated in the top 10 companies, which have pushed the S&P 500’s valuation to above-average levels. How should investors think about this data?

    History is a great starting point, with over 100 years of various market conditions, recessions, and geopolitical headlines. History shows that stocks typically have “better-than-average” and “great” years in clusters, much like the S&P 500 has experienced recently. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged 10.4% per year; during that period, it has only posted calendar year returns around the average (8% to 12%) in 6 years. This shows that over longer periods, fundamentals drive stock prices, not year-to-year price fluctuations- the benefit of being a long-term investor.

    In addition to understanding historical trends, investors should recognize the broadening out in the current bull market. In January, the S&P 500’s Technology sector was the only sector to fall during the month; the average stock also finished ahead of the index. Investors should view developments such as these favorably as the current bull market continues ahead.

    Source: Morningstar as of 12/31/24. U.S. stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index from 3/4/57 to 12/31/24 and the IA SBBI U.S. Lrg Stock Tr USD Index from 1/1/26 to 3/4/57, unmanaged indexes that are generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market during each given time period.

    What’s on Deck for February?

    • Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2024 will continue. As of February 2nd, 32% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 74% beating earnings estimates and 62% beating revenue estimates.
    • The new Administration will continue to roll-out new policies, in addition to Congress working on budget and tax legislation.
  • Market Pulse: Quarter 4, 2024

    We are excited to share the inaugural version of Confluence Financial Partner’s Market Pulse: A Quarterly Review of Investment Trends and Insights. We aim to succinctly recap key investment trends and events on a quarterly basis, while providing insightful and actionable outlooks for the coming months. 

    Q4 2024 Insights: Three Key Takeaways

    Policy Shift: 2024 saw the Federal Reserve shift gears and lower interest rates, ending the rate hiking cycle that began in June 2022 and featured 9 rate hikes.

    Mega Leadership: Mega cap stocks, the largest companies in the US, pulled the S&P 500 to a second consecutive +25% annual gain, outpacing smaller stocks, international stocks, and bonds.

    High Concentration: The mega cap leadership resulted in a very narrow market by historical standards: the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 represent over 38% of the index (highest in over 40 years).

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: November 2024

    • Markets rallied sharply in November following the US elections, with US small cap stocks leading all markets higher at +10.97% for the month (Russell 2000 TR Index). This represents the first all-time high for small caps in three years.
    • US large cap stocks also participated, with the S&P 500 TR Index rising +5.87% in November. The gains for large cap growth and large cap value were about even for the month.
    • The strength of the US dollar weighed on international stocks, which fell slightly during the month (-0.57%, MSCI EAFE NR USD Index). After interest rates initially rose sharply, longer-term rates ultimately fell in November, resulting in a +1.06% gain for the bond market (Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond TR Index).

    This year has been another strong year for equity markets, particularly US large-cap stocks. For example, the S&P 500 has made over 50 all-time highs in 2024, which is on pace for the fifth most in a calendar year since 1957. Through the end of November, it was also the strongest election year since 1936 for the S&P 500. What do investors have to look to as we head into 2025?

    In the very near-term, investors have the month of December. Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has had a positive return 74% of all Decembers, the highest positive return rate of any month. The average monthly return of +1.3% in December is the second-best month of the calendar year, on average.

    There are also historical trends around US election cycles to consider. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has averaged +10.7% during the year after Presidential elections, slightly higher than the +10.4% for any given year. This trend largely reflects the ability for new administrations to enact legislative change prior to mid-term election years, which have historically had below-average results.

    Morningstar as of 10/31/24.  Stock market represented by the S&P 500 Index from 1/1/70 to 10/31/24 and  IA SBBI U.S. large cap stocks index from 1/1/26 to 1/1/70. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in the index.

    • The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to policy on December 18th. As of December 2nd, the market is pricing a 65% chance of a 0.25% reduction in the Federal Funds Rate.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: October 2024

    • October was a challenging month for stock and bond markets as bond yields rose sharply during the month. All major markets finished the month lower, with international equities and interest rate sensitive equities falling the most.
    • The S&P 500 finished October down slightly at -0.91% (S&P 500 TR Index), marking the first time in five months that the index has declined.
    • The yield of the 10-year US Treasury rose to +4.28% in October (+0.54% increase for the month), which weighed on bond market returns: the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index fell -2.48% in October.

    The Federal Reserve began its interest rate cutting cycle in September, reducing the Federal Funds target rate by 0.50%. Historically, the start of an interest rate reduction policy has been associated with a decline in bond yields. Why is this? Typically, the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to help support a slowing economy, whether its slowing due to changes in the business cycle, or an external event.

    This year has been an exception, compared to the seven easing cycles since 1989 (before 1989 Federal Reserve did not officially target interest rate changes). Since the September 18th rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased nearly 0.60%, the largest increase at this stage compared to the previous seven cycles. It is worth noting that 50-days after the first rate cut, during the previous seven cycles, the 10-year yield was either the same, or lower, than the start.

    What could be driving bond yields higher during the present cycle? It is likely the fact that inflation is declining, while the economy and jobs markets are still growing (at a slowing rate), similar to the 1995 soft landing outcome. Alternatively, it could be a sign that investors are concerned about the lack of any clear plan to address the US government’s fiscal situation. Measuring outstanding debt relative to annual economic growth, the United States has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%- meaning more debt outstanding than the rate of economic growth in a given year.

    Source: Yardeni Research, LSEG Datastream

    • US Election Day is on November 5th, which will be a closely followed affair.
    • Earnings season is well underway for the Third Quarter of 2024. Consensus estimates for year/year earnings growth for the S&P 500 was +4.3% for the quarter.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Inflation’s Return: Impact on the Global Economy & Your Investments

    After a long hiatus, inflation has made quite a comeback in everyday lives of consumers around the world. Generally defined as the increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy, inflation had been below historical averages most of the past decade, with the backdrop of a longer-term decline since peaking in the early 1980’s. The COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst for a revival, initially due to constraints on supply chains and global trade. However, as economies globally recovered from the pandemic, inflation readings continued to show signs of growth.

    The phenomenon was initially described as “transitory” by economists and investors, believing that inflation would slow as supply chains and global trade healed. This assumption proved to be incorrect, with the “transitory” description has been dropped since mid-2021, as all major measures of inflation have continued to increase at a consistent and rapid pace. The most commonly referenced inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is tracked including food and energy prices (headline CPI) and excluding food and energy prices (core CPI). The reading through February showed that compared to one-year ago, headline CPI rose +7.9% and core CPI rose +6.4%, the highest level in almost 40-year for both readings. Importantly, this reading does not account for the subsequent increase in energy and other commodities after the escalation in Ukraine.

    Core CPI through February 2022; 1970 to 2022

    Inflation is an impactful force to the global economy and therefore financial markets; the sharp increase certainly has the attention of policymakers. In the United States, the Federal Reserve operates under a “dual mandate” of “price stability and maximum sustainable employment”, with the former goal referencing inflation. Due to the improvement in the labor market, and consistently high inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates starting in the March meeting.  The first increase will mark the start of tighter monetary policy, which will influence equity and bond markets in the short-term. The additional unknown duration of the supply disruptions in the oil and gas market will also muddy the waters for policymakers over the coming months.

    The long, secular decline in inflation readings is over in the short-term. With inflation readings already near 40-year highs prior to the conflict in Ukraine, the response by policymakers over the coming months will be widely followed by investors. As we transition to a rate hiking cycle and inflation stays firm, the environment will likely require investors to shift their approach. Looking back historically over periods of rising inflation, asset classes such as commodities, real estate, value equities, US small cap equities and international equities tended to do well. Within equities, dividend paying stocks may offer an attractive opportunity for investors seeking growth with income in an inflationary environment. One additional portfolio consideration for investors: inflationary periods have had implications for the relationship between stock and bond returns, with high and rising inflation historically reducing the diversification benefit from bonds (positive correlation between stocks and bonds). While the approach may be different than the past 20 years for investors, there are likely to be opportunities for long-term investors to take advantage of as we navigate the ever-changing investment environment.

    Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this white paper and may be subject to change; they are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Prior to making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Although certain information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete.

    Forecasts, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with such forward-looking statements, it is important to note that actual events or results may differ materially from those contemplated.

    Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. d/b/a Confluence Financial Partners is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. Please refer to our Form ADV Part 2A and Form CRS for further information regarding our investment services and their corresponding risks.

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Market Update – May 2022

    Though the market changes, our commitment to clients does not. Our Chief Executive Officer, Greg Weimer, and Director of Investments, Bill Winkeler, give you an update on the current market and share insights on how to navigate these times.