Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • May 2026 Market Recap

    Month in Review

    • Markets around the world continued to rally from the late March lows, as oil prices fell sharply amidst optimism of a long-term ceasefire in Iran and earnings expectations continued to increase.  
    • The S&P 500 Index rose +5.26% in May (S&P 500 TR Index), driven by large AI-related companies. The market capitalization index rose nearly double the equal weighted index, highlighting the trend of increasing concentration in the market (+2.68%, S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index).
    • Large cap growth stocks outpaced all other markets in May (+7.20%, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index), benefiting from significant exposure to Technology stocks: Technology sector alone represents 53% of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
    • Bond market dealt with competing forces in May: investors continued to reduce the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026, but oil prices had their largest monthly decline since early 2020. The result was a mild monthly gain for the bond market, with the Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index rising +0.31% in May.

    Market Concentration Back to Highs

    Technology and AI-related companies powered the S&P 500 higher in May, extending the rally that began in late March. Technology stocks have led the way, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising +8.43% in May, which is also shifting the composition of the overall equity market.

    After declining from record levels of concentration, the S&P 500 has once again become extremely concentrated: the top 10 companies in the index represent 40.6% of the market capitalization. While this is below the near 50-year record set in 2025, this is a sharp reversal from recent broadening of leadership (the top 10 companies represented 37.9% of the market as recently as March 31, 2026). What is driving this shift? Earnings.

    First quarter earnings showed the strength of AI-related spend, with earnings estimates surprising to the upside at a level rarely seen outside of post-recessionary recoveries. Analysts expected AI Hyperscalers to invest over $800bn in AI-related capex in the next 12-months; an important factor driving overall earnings growth higher. These companies are also amongst the larger companies in the market, and responsible for the sharp increase in concentration since late March.

    Source: Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of May 29, 2026

    What’s on Deck for June?

    Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve and will begin to oversee the FOMC in June. His tenure starts at a time of increasing dispersion of views amongst Federal Reserve members and a shifting investor outlook toward interest rate policy.  

  • The Wealth Thresholds That May Reshape Decision-Making: $5M, $10M, $25M, and $50M+

    As wealth grows, so does complexity. Explore how key wealth milestones may influence financial priorities, risk perception, governance needs, and the pursuit of long-term alignment.

    The wealth thresholds that quietly reshape decision-making

    Wealth rarely changes life in one clean break. It often changes in stages. Not because the numbers themselves have magic, but because each level can introduce different kinds of complexity, responsibility, and decision considerations.

    What is often overlooked is that the transition is not just financial. It can be structural and psychological at the same time. The portfolio evolves, but so can the way decisions get made, how risk is perceived, and what “enough” starts to mean.

    Below is a practical framework for how these thresholds may show up in practice.

    Around $5M: The shift from accumulation to awareness

    At roughly $5M, many people still think like accumulators. The habits that created the wealth are still running the show, but something subtle may change. Complexity can begin to increase.

    This is often the point where:

    • Wealth may no longer be concentrated in a single account type or strategy
    • Tax decisions can begin to have noticeable, year-to-year impact
    • Real estate, business equity, or concentrated stock positions may become more relevant
    • Financial decisions may begin to feel more interconnected

    The psychological shift can also evolve. There is often an early awareness that “doing well” is different from “having it organized well.”

    This is where structure may start to matter, even if it has not yet been fully developed.

    Around $10M: Complexity becomes more persistent

    At $10M, the financial picture may become less straightforward, even if it appears organized on the surface.

    This is where fragmentation can become a real risk. Not necessarily because of poor investing, but because of the number of moving parts involved.

    Common dynamics may include:

    • Multiple account types, advisors, or planning inputs without full integration
    • Tax strategy becoming continuous rather than episodic
    • Estate planning moving beyond basic documents
    • Liquidity planning becoming more relevant, especially for business owners
    • Increasing decision fatigue as options and structures multiply

    The psychological shift here is subtle but persistent. Some individuals feel increasingly “successful but uncoordinated.” Not because things are broken, but because alignment becomes more complex.

    Around $25M: The transition to preservation and governance

    At $25M, the priorities may begin to shift. The focus can move from building wealth toward sustaining it across time and generations.

    At this stage, governance may become as important as investment performance.

    You may see:

    • More formal use of trusts, entities, and structured ownership
    • A growing share of assets outside traditional public markets
    • Increased attention to estate design and intergenerational considerations
    • More intentional communication within families about money and expectations
    • Risk management expanding beyond markets into legal, family, and operational exposure

    The key shift is that volatility is not limited to markets. It becomes life-driven. Business transitions, liquidity events, health changes, and family dynamics can carry equal weight.

    At this level, the challenge is less about optimization and more about maintaining coherence across moving parts.

    $50M and beyond: Wealth becomes a system

    At $50M+, wealth often stops behaving like a portfolio and may begin to function more like a private system.

    The structure can become more institutional in nature, even when privately controlled.

    Common characteristics may include:

    • Family office or family office-like coordination
    • A diversified capital base across public markets, private investments, real estate, and direct deals
    • Philanthropy that is strategic, structured, and long-term in orientation
    • Tax considerations embedded into many major financial decisions
    • Broader risk considerations that may include reputation, governance, and generational alignment

    The psychological shift is important here. Constraints are often less financial. They become organizational and relational.

    The central challenges become maintaining alignment, keeping strategy, structure, and intent moving in the same direction across complexity that no longer naturally self-organizes.

    When Everything Grows Except Alignment

    What can change after $5M, $10M, $25M, and $50M is not just the size of the balance sheet. It can be the environment in which decisions are made, and the discipline required to keep those decisions aligned over time.

    Clarity often comes from understanding how structure, strategy, and behavior interact and where they may drift apart.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we work with clients to bring structure and clarity to increasingly complex financial situations. If you believe your current approach could benefit from greater alignment, we welcome a conversation.

  • April 2026 Market Recap

    Month in Review

    • Equity markets across the globe rebounded sharply in April, defying expectations of a longer drawdown given the oil shock supply. Corporate earnings remain supportive of stock prices.
    • Technology, large cap growth, and small cap stocks led the rebound higher, with the Russell 1000 Growth TR Index rising +11.90% in April. Value stocks largely kept pace, with the Russell 1000 Value TR Index rising +8.16% for the month.
    • Small cap stocks rose +12.21% (Russell 2000 TR Index) in April, benefitting from stronger-than-expected economic fundamentals given their higher sensitivity to economic growth.  
    • Long-term Treasury yields rose during April, with the 30-year Treasury touching 5% towards the end of the month. This kept a lid on core bonds, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index rising +0.11% in April.

    What Powered the Recovery in April?

    The S&P 500’s +10.49% total return in April was the second best April for the S&P 500 going back to 1950. This outcome was somewhat surprising to investors given the potential headwinds from roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply being offline. Putting aside the forward-looking nature of financial markets, a key catalyst was the fundamental support that strengthened in March and April. Corporate earnings have defied expectations of a decline and actually saw accelerated growth since the conflict in Iran started.

    Historically, in any given year, estimate for corporate earnings decline over time. This year has seen the opposite happen: estimates for 2026 earnings and 2027 earnings for the S&P 500 have increased since the conflict began in late February. As of 4/30/2026, first quarter S&P 500 earnings are on track for 16% growth year/year, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Now the full year 2026 earnings estimates are tracking to low double-digit growth- a key factor supporting the rapid recovery in April.

    What’s on Deck for May?

    • Kevin Warsh is set to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve as Jerome Powell’s term as Chairman ends. Thus far, Powell has indicated he will stay on as a Governor, an unusual outcome relative to recent history.
    • Investors will closely watch for resolution with the Iranian conflict. Globally, oil reserves started 2026 at high levels but are being drawn down rapidly as supply of oil remains largely restricted from the region.
  • Things to Consider when Choosing a Financial Planner for Retirement

    Planning for retirement is a journey, and like any journey, having the right guide can make all the difference. A skilled financial planner can help you navigate complex decisions, avoid costly mistakes, and create a strategy that aligns with your goals and values. But with so many advisors available, how do you choose the one who’s right for you?

    Look for the Right Qualities

    A strong financial planner should be able to combine technical expertise with a genuine understanding of your personal goals. Look for someone who:

    • Communicates clearly and listens attentively
    • Demonstrates transparency about their services and fees
    • Shows patience and willingness to educate you about your options
    • Understands retirement planning holistically, including investments, taxes, estate planning, and risk management

    Understand Fiduciaries vs. Non-Fiduciaries

    One of the most important distinctions in financial planning is whether the planner is a fiduciary. Fiduciaries are legally required to act in your best interest, whereas non-fiduciaries may offer advice that benefits their own business or commissions. Choosing a fiduciary can help to ensure that your financial well-being is the advisor’s top priority.

    Ask the Right Questions During Consultations

    An initial meeting with a financial planner is as much about evaluating them as it is about exploring your options. Some questions to consider:

    • What is your approach to retirement planning?
    • How do you stay current with financial regulations and strategies?
    • What credentials and experience do you have?
    • How do you charge for your services, and are there any potential conflicts of interest?
    • Can you provide references from clients with similar goals?

    Evaluate Experience, Credentials, and Fees

    Credentials such as CFP® (Certified Financial Planner), CPA (Certified Public Accountant), or CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) signal formal education, ongoing training, and adherence to ethical standards. Experience in retirement planning specifically is equally important, as it demonstrates familiarity with the nuances of long-term financial strategies. Fee structures vary. Some planners charge a percentage of assets, while others use flat or hourly fees. Ensure the approach aligns with your budget and expectations.

    Align on Goals and Values

    A Financial Planner who understands your goals and priorities can help support your retirement planning process. They should respect your risk tolerance, consider your lifestyle goals, and be willing to create a personalized plan rather than offering a one-size-fits-all solution.

    Red Flags to Watch For

    Not every financial planner is the right fit. Be cautious if you notice any of the following:

    • Lack of transparency about fees – Vague or evasive answers could lead to unexpected costs.
    • Pushy sales tactics – Avoid planners who pressure you into specific investments or “act now” strategies.
    • No fiduciary commitment – Non-fiduciaries may prioritize commissions over your best interests.
    • One-size-fits-all approach – Cookie-cutter solutions rarely meet individual goals.
    • Poor communication – If questions go unanswered or you feel unheard, the partnership may be frustrating.

    Being aware of these warning signs helps ensure you choose a planner who genuinely supports your retirement goals.

    Take the First Step

    Choosing the right financial planner is a decision that can shape your retirement and peace of mind. If you’re in need of a financial planner or would like a second opinion on your current retirement plan, reach out to us to schedule a consultation. We aim to help you understand your retirement options so you can make more informed choices about your plan.

  • First Quarter 2026 Market Recap

    First Quarter 2026 Market Recap

    Geopolitical Headwinds in 2026

    • Escalating tensions in the Middle East sent energy prices sharply higher during the quarter, with US gasoline rising above $4.00/gallon nationally for the first time since 2022.
    • Rising energy prices during the quarter put the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts on hold for the near-term, with investors now pricing in zero interest rate cuts in 2026.
    • During the quarter, almost all major stock markets fell between 8% and 10% from their 2026 high levels, due in large part to the rise in energy prices and lower likelihood of interest rate cuts.
    • Underlying fundamentals were still strong heading into the start of the conflict in Iran, despite weakness in AI-related equities and private credit.

    What Happened in the First Quarter?

    Equity markets started 2026 on a strong note, with broad equity market leadership and participation. That changed in late February, with the start of the conflict with Iran, causing energy prices to rise sharply higher. This introduced volatility into the broad equity and fixed income markets, with most major equity markets experiencing a correction from their high levels in January (correction is a decline greater than 10%). However, some equity markets fared better during the first quarter: large cap value (Russell 1000 Value TR Index, +2.10%) and small cap stocks (Russell 2000 TR Index, +0.89%) captured less downside than large cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, -9.78%), for example. International equities, which started 2026 on a strong note, suffered from a strengthening US dollar and higher energy prices, pushing the markets lower in March and mildly lower for the quarter (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index, -0.71% for the first quarter)

    The market’s expectations of the oil supply disruption have not reduced corporate earnings expectations yet- earnings estimates have actually risen through quarter-end. This resulted in stocks becoming cheaper this month: S&P 500 is down -5% in March, but with 2026 earnings expectations increasing, has taken the forward P/E ratio to roughly 19x forward earnings (peaked over 23x in October 2025).

    Sources: Morningstar, Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, US Large Caps = S&P 500 TR Index, US Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, US Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, US Large Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index

    The bond market experienced a month of positive correlation to the stock market in March: core bonds decline with equities, albeit to a lesser degree (Bloomberg Barclays Agg Bond TR Index fell -1.76% in March, taking 1Q2026 to -0.05%). This was primarily because of the short-term increase in inflation expectations due to rising energy costs, which reduce the probability of interest rate cuts in 2026. As of 3/31/2026, futures markets were pricing zero interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a sharp change from the start of 2026. Also, within fixed income, private credit investments continue to come under pressure from significant investor redemptions, as investors become cautious on the asset class after years of significant asset growth.

    Other diversifying asset classes also struggled. After a strong 12-18 months, gold prices declined in March (Spot gold prices declined -10.85% during the month). Cryptocurrencies faired modestly better in March but are still experiencing a challenging period: Bitcoin rose +3.38%% in March, but is still down -22.55% in 2026.

    Equity Markets & Energy Shocks

    The current supply disruption of oil (and natural gas) is the most significant in history, with nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply being removed from the market. This has pushed energy prices sharply higher: the price of Brent crude oil rose over 55% higher March, the largest monthly percentage increase in its history. Naturally, the relationship between equity markets and energy shocks has come into focus in 2026.

    It is important to note that this relationship has evolved somewhat over time: for example, the United States is the largest single country producer of oil and natural gas today (22% share), an increase from the energy shocks of the 1970’s. Energy sensitivity at the consumer level is also lower today compared to 50 years ago: energy expenditures as a share of disposable income was roughly 5.9%, compared to the 1984 peak of 10% of disposable income.

    Sources: Capital Group, U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data includes petroleum and other liquids such as biodiesel, ethanol, liquids produced from coal, gas, and oil shale, Orimulsion, blending components, and other hydrocarbons. Latest data available is 2024 as of February 28, 2026. 

    Looking at seven oil shocks since 1990 (not counting the present), the S&P 500 has typically traded lower following the start of the rise in oil prices. However, one year after the disruptions, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12% return. The greater question is whether the supply shock is severe enough to push the economy into a recession (similar to the 1970s episode), which could result in greater downside for the S&P 500. Prompt resolution to the significant supply shock is paramount to equities following the underlying fundamental strength they had to start 2026.

    What’s Ahead for the Second Quarter?

    Investors will be closely monitoring for any potential resolution of the oil supply shock; prolonged remove of supply risks pushing energy prices even higher. The higher energy prices have moved short-term inflation expectations higher, which is expected to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in the Second Quarter and beyond. Mid-term elections are also inching closer, which historically has been a source of short-term volatility for equity markets.

    Relative weakness in Technology and AI will also be closely watched by investors: expected AI-related capital expenditures in 2026 nearly reached a massive $700bn but may be showing signs of having peaked. Related to this is the on-going pressure in the private credit space, which grew significantly in size over the last five years.

    Overall earnings are still expected to be strong – nearly 13% earnings growth expected for 1Q2026 (which will be released during the second quarter). Earnings have bucked the energy shock to date, likely reflecting expectations of a prompt resolution.

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

  • Building Wealth with Intention and Strategy

    Building substantial wealth is a significant accomplishment, and preserving it can require ongoing attention over time, often across generations. For ultra-high net worth families, the stakes can be high. Overlooked details and uncoordinated planning may quietly erode decades of effort.

    Wealth Is More Than Money

    For high-net-worth families, wealth is a system, not just a number. It may encompass investments, taxes, insurance, retirement plans, and estate planning. Focusing solely on growth can sometimes overlook the structural elements that protect and sustain assets over time. We believe aligning all these pieces can help your financial life work together to support both your goals and your legacy.

    Strategic Risk Management

    Even significant portfolios can carry hidden risks. Concentrated positions, market volatility, inflation, or lifestyle creep may quietly erode wealth. A thoughtful approach to wealth preservation may consider these factors: it anticipates challenges, integrates protections, and aims to position the family’s financial plan to absorb shocks without derailing long-term objectives.

    Legacy and Multi-Generational Planning

    Preserving wealth isn’t just about today. It’s also about the future of your family. Thoughtful estate and legacy planning can help protect heirs from unnecessary complexity while helping ensure assets are passed on according to your values. Multi-generational planning may also help create continuity, it may empower your family to manage wealth responsibly and could perpetuate the principles behind it.

    Coordinated Financial Oversight

    Wealth preservation typically benefits from a holistic approach. Investments, insurance, philanthropy, and tax strategies should work together, not in isolation. Families who coordinate these elements through an advisory team may help support decisions that are consistent, adaptable, and resilient over time. Oversight helps prevent gaps, aligns strategy with goals, and turns financial planning into a living, evolving process.

    Preparing the Next Generation

    An important piece of preservation is human capital. Wealth without stewardship can become a source of tension or mismanagement. Preparing heirs through education, values-based guidance, and structured inheritance may help them become ready to protect and grow the family’s assets. This is one piece that can transform financial security into a sustainable legacy.

    Conclusion

    Wealth preservation is an on-going process. It’s a continuous commitment to clarity, alignment, and foresight. We believe some of the most effective strategies are proactive, integrated, and multi-generational. When approached intentionally, wealth can become a lasting tool that supports your family, your values, and your legacy for generations to come.

    A thoughtful, tailored strategy can help support your financial goals today while considering the needs of future generations. Schedule a private consultation with our team to review your financial plan and explore the potential opportunities.

  • Market Recap: February 2026

    Month in Review

    • Value and international equity markets continued their strength in February, extending the strong start to 2026 for diversified portfolios.
    • The S&P 500 TR Index declined -0.76% for the month, with technology and growth stocks again weighing on the index. Large cap growth stocks declined -3.36% in the month of February, taking 2026 returns to -4.82% (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index)
    • Equities outside of large cap growth again showed strength. Within the large cap space, value rose +2.59% in February (Russell 1000 Value TR Index), small caps rose +0.80% (Russell 2000 TR Index), and international equities led major equity indices at +5.02% during the month (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index)
    • Bond markets benefitted from a decline in interest rates across the yield curve, driving the core bond index to a strong +1.64% monthly gain (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR Index)

    Stock Market & Geopolitical Events

    One of the more well-known investing adages is the “stock market climbs a wall of worry”, which is particularly appropriate for times of geopolitical conflict such as the present.

    Acknowledging the human impact of geopolitical events, history shows that the impact to equity markets tends to be short-lived. Looking at the period since the S&P 500 was incepted, excluding the present conflict in Iran, the S&P 500 has declined an average of -5.3% over 11 trading days following the start of major geopolitical events (shown in the table below).

    Historically following the initial sell-off, investors digest the fundamental impact to the stock market (which tends to not be long-lasting in nature), and the stock market exhibits some symmetry – recovering the initial loss in an average of 12 trading days. While conflicts like the present can exhibit immense human cost, history shows that the stock market will continue to climb the wall of worry.

    S&P 500 Selloffs Around Geopolitical Events

    What’s on Deck for March?

    • The Federal Reserve meets on March 18th, but as of the time of writing, investors are pricing in a 97% probability of no interest rate cuts. Current pricing indicates expectations of two 0.25% rate cuts in 2026.  
    • Following earnings season, expectations for capital expenditures on AI technologies reached new extremes. The five “Hyperscalers” (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) have guided roughly $700bn of capex in the next 12 months. If realized, this would be one of the larger investment outlays relative to GDP in modern history (~2% of GDP). Investors are paying close attention to efficacy of this record investment.
  • How Thoughtful Financial Planning Could Affect Your Next Generation

    Insights at a Glance

    • Working with Confluence Financial Partners can help you structure the conversation and help create a plan that could support both your financial goals and your family’s future.
    • Thoughtful financial planning can provide clarity and structure, which could reduce confusion and potential conflict for heirs.
    • Updated estate documents and coordinated beneficiary designations help ensure assets transfer according to your wishes.
    • Involving the next generation in financial conversations may build confidence, responsibility, and long-term discipline.
    • Regular family meetings could keep everyone aligned on shared goals, expectations, and future decision making.
    • Strategic tax planning may preserve more wealth for your children and grandchildren.
    • Defining a clear purpose for your wealth may strengthen your family’s legacy beyond financial assets alone.

    Financial planning is often centered on retirement timelines, investment returns, and tax efficiency. While those elements matter, thoughtful financial planning reaches far beyond numbers. At its core, it is about stewardship. It is about aligning your resources with your values and preparing the next generation for both opportunity and responsibility.

    A well-constructed plan can do more than preserve wealth. It could influence the financial mindset, confidence, and long-term trajectory of your children and grandchildren.

    It Helps Create Clarity Instead of Confusion

    Without a clear plan, wealth transfers can create stress and unintended consequences. Uncertainty around estate documents, beneficiary designations, or asset distribution can lead to conflict and costly legal challenges. Thoughtful planning should address these risks in advance.

    Keeping wills and trusts up to date, confirming beneficiary designations, and coordinating tax strategies help ensure assets are transferred according to your wishes. When your affairs are organized and clearly communicated, they work to provide direction rather than uncertainty during an already emotional time.

    We believe clarity is one of the greatest gifts you can leave your family.

    It Can Help Teach Financial Responsibility

    One of the most powerful aspects of financial planning is the example it sets. Children observe how money is earned, saved, invested, and given. A thoughtful approach can demonstrate discipline, patience, and intentional decision making.

    Including adult children in appropriate financial conversations can be especially impactful. Explaining why certain decisions were made, whether related to charitable giving, business succession, or investment philosophy, gives meaning to the assets they may one day inherit.

    Wealth without preparation can erode quickly. Wealth paired with education and shared values is far more likely to endure.

    It Strives to Encourage Family Meetings and Open Dialogue

    Many families avoid conversations about money. Silence often leads to misunderstanding. Holding regular family meetings creates a structured opportunity to discuss long term plans, expectations, and responsibilities.

    These meetings do not need to be overly formal. They can be simple gatherings focused on keeping everyone informed and aligned. Topics might include the purpose of a family trust, succession plans for a business, philanthropic priorities, or how future decisions will be made.

    When families meet intentionally to discuss their vision for the future, it helps keep everyone on the same page. It also reduces the likelihood of confusion or conflict later. Open dialogue builds trust and reinforces that financial planning is a shared effort, not a surprise revealed too late.

    It Could Help to Reduce Tax and Administrative Burdens

    Strategic planning can significantly affect what the next generation ultimately receives. Coordinating estate planning with tax strategies such as lifetime gifting, Roth conversions, or charitable structures may reduce estate and income tax exposure.

    Proper titling of assets and aligned beneficiary designations can also streamline administration, helping heirs avoid unnecessary delays and expenses. While taxes are not the only consideration, minimizing avoidable friction allows the ability for your legacy to be transferred more efficiently and intentionally.

    It May Provide Purpose Beyond Wealth

    Thoughtful financial planning shifts the focus from accumulation to intention. When families define what their wealth is meant to accomplish, whether supporting education, sustaining a business, funding charitable initiatives, or creating long term security, money becomes a tool rather than a source of division.

    Some families formalize this through a written mission statement or shared set of guiding principles. These frameworks provide continuity and remind future generations that wealth carries both opportunity and responsibility.

    The Long View

    Thoughtful financial planning is not a one time event. It is an ongoing process that evolves as markets change, laws shift, and family circumstances grow more complex. Regular reviews and continued communication ensure your strategy reflects both your financial goals and your family’s values.

    Ultimately, the impact of financial planning extends far beyond your lifetime. With clarity, preparation, and intentional family meetings, you can do more than transfer assets. You could transfer wisdom, stability, and direction.

    If you are ready to begin these conversations, the team at Confluence Financial Partners can help guide the process. From facilitating family meetings to coordinating estate and tax strategies, we work alongside you to help create a thoughtful plan that reflects your values and prepares the next generation with confidence.

  • Market Recap: January 2026

    Month in Review

    • Diversification was the name of the game in January, with value stocks, small cap stocks, and international stocks leading markets higher, as the S&P 500 finished January up +1.45% (S&P 500 TR Index)
    • Weakness in Technology stocks continued for the second straight month, causing the large cap growth stock index to fall -1.51% in January (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index). In contrast, large cap value stocks started 2026 strongly, with the Russell 1000 Value TR Index rising +4.56% in January.
    • Small caps and international stocks continued their strength as well, with the small caps rising +5.35% (Russell 2000 TR Index) and international stocks rising +5.98% (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index) in January.
    • Bond markets were nearly unchanged during the month (+0.11%, Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR Index), as investors balanced the steady decline in inflation with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve leader.

    US Dollar Continues to Weaken

    The US dollar continued to decline versus major currencies in 2026, falling roughly -2% in January. The decline in 2026 follows-up a decline of 9.4% in 2025, which was the worst calendar year for the dollar since 2017. There are many potential causes to the decline over the past 13 months, such as: changes in interest rates, starting valuation of the dollar, and changes to the fiscal outlook for the United States. The decline also has tangible impact on stock and bond markets, particularly coming off of a bull market for the dollar that lasted from March 2008 to September 2022.

    For stock markets globally, the effect of the decline is two-fold. For US-based companies, especially large cap stocks in indices such as the S&P 500, a weakening dollar does boost earnings growth for these companies (unlike the US economy, S&P 500 Index generates 30% of sales from overseas).

    For international equity markets, it has been a boon for US-based investors. US-based investors owning international stocks have three sources of return: share price + dividend yield + currency impact. The depreciation of the dollar added almost 8% to the return of the international stock market for US-based investors in 2025 (+32.39% in 2025, MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index). This continued in January with a roughly 1.4% boost via currency (+5.98% in January, MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index). Continued weakening of the US dollar could be a positive factor for US investors that own international stocks. For commodities and currency alternatives, dollar weakness has been a mixed bag: gold shined (+9.31% in January, S&P GSCI Gold Spot Index), while Bitcoin struggled (-4.29% in January, S&P Bitcoin USD).

    Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Currencies in the DXY Index are: British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

    What’s on Deck for February?

    • Earnings seasons covering the fourth quarter of 2025 continues in February, with the majority of the Index’s market capitalization reporting in late January and early February. AI-related investment and consumer strength will be the key themes watched by investors.
    • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates constant in January. Kevin Warsh was nominated to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve – he will begin the confirmation process.
  • What Is Private Wealth Management?

    Private wealth management is a comprehensive approach to accumulating, preserving, and growing wealth. It goes beyond investment management alone, bringing together holistic financial planning, tax strategy, estate considerations, and ongoing guidance tailored to an individual or family’s full financial picture.

    Rather than offering one-size-fits-all solutions, private wealth management is highly personalized. The goal is to help clients make confident financial decisions across every stage of life while aligning their wealth with what matters most to them.

    A Holistic View of Your Financial Life

    At its core, private wealth management looks at the whole picture. This includes investments, cash flow, tax efficiency, risk management, retirement planning, and legacy goals. Each element is considered in relation to the others, creating a coordinated strategy designed to support both short-term priorities and long-term objectives.

    This approach can help reduce complexities, identify opportunities, and avoid costly missteps that can occur when financial decisions are made in isolation.

    Personalized Investment Strategy

    Investment management is a key component of private wealth management, but it is always rooted in the client’s broader plan. Portfolios are designed based on factors such as goals, time horizon, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.

    Rather than reacting to short-term market movements, private wealth management emphasizes disciplined, long-term strategies. Ongoing monitoring and adjustments help ensure investments remain aligned as markets shift and life circumstances and goals evolve.

    Planning Beyond Investments

    Private wealth management also addresses areas that extend well beyond the portfolio. This may include retirement income planning, charitable giving strategies, business succession planning, and estate coordination. Thoughtful tax planning and risk management are often integrated to help preserve wealth and improve overall efficiency.

    By coordinating these elements, private wealth management helps clients navigate complexity with greater clarity and confidence.

    Ongoing Guidance and Partnership

    One of the most valuable aspects of private wealth management is the ongoing relationship with an advisor. As life changes in ways such as career transitions, family milestones, or unexpected events, financial strategies need to adapt. Private wealth management provides continuous guidance, helping clients stay focused on their long-term plan while making informed decisions along the way.

    This partnership offers not just technical expertise, but also perspective during uncertain or emotionally charged moments. Working closely with a trusted advisor can help avoid knee jerk decision making at critical junctions.

    Who Can Benefit from Private Wealth Management?

    Private wealth management is often associated with high-net-worth individuals and families, but its value spans most asset levels. It is about more than managing money. It is about creating structure, clarity, and confidence so that wealth can support the life you want to live today and in the future.

    Learn More About Private Wealth Management

    If you’re interested in learning more about private wealth management and whether it may be a fit for you, a conversation can be a helpful first step. Understanding how your investments, planning, and long-term goals work together can bring greater clarity and confidence to your financial decisions.

    And if you already work with a wealth management team, we’re always happy to provide a thoughtful second look. A fresh perspective can help confirm you’re on the right track or identify opportunities that may have been overlooked. Whether you’re just getting started or refining an existing plan, the goal is the same: ensuring your wealth strategy truly aligns with your goals.