Category: Uncategorized

  • Market Recap: August 2025

    A Monthly Review of Investment Trends and Insights

    Month in Review

    • Increased likelihood of an interest rate cut in September helped to push stocks higher, along with another quarter of strong earnings. The S&P 500 TR Index finished August +2.03% higher.
    • US small cap stocks led all equity markets higher, as the combination of inexpensive valuations and potential interest rate cuts proved to be a tailwind in August. The Russell 2000 TR Index rose +7.14% in August, bringing the return since 6/30/2025 to +9.00%.
    • Reversing July’s rally, the US Dollar fell again in August, providing an additional boost for international stocks denominated in US dollars. The MSCI EAFE NR USD Index rose +4.26% for the month, taking the YTD 2025 rally to +22.79%.
    • The likelihood of a September interest rate cut pushed short-term bond yields lower, helping to drive a +1.20% monthly rally for major bond markets (Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond TR Index). It is important to note that longer-term bond yields actually rose slightly during the month.

    Small Caps Shine in August

    US small cap stocks, which are in the midst of one their longest period of underperformance versus US large caps, rallied sharply in August (Russell 2000 TR Index +7.14%, S&P 600 TR Index +7.06%). The primary reason – clarity around the now widely expected interest rate cut in September.

    US small cap stocks have significantly greater exposure to short-term interest rates, having nearly 5x the amount of floating rate debt compared to the S&P 500 (chart below). Given that the Federal Funds Rate, the anchor for floating rate debt rates, has been above 4% since December 2022, small cap debt service costs have also been elevated. Effective annual debt cost for the Russell 2000 Index is closer to 7%, significantly higher than the effective rate for the S&P 500, which had more companies issue longer-term, fixed rate debt.

    The nearly 12-year period of underperformance versus large caps has driven small caps to represent less than 4% of the overall US stock market, much lower than the 7% long-term average. The start of an interest rate cutting cycle is one element that could benefit small cap stocks. Their valuations are also much lower than US large cap stocks, which could also be a tailwind if the economy continues to expand, and catalyze increased representation of small caps.

    What’s on Deck for September?

    • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces their decision to change interest rates on September 17th. As of August 31st, markets are assigning a roughly 90% probability that the FOMC reduces the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%.
    • The Federal Reserve staffing is also in the spotlight. In August, President Trump announced intentions to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, on allegations of mortgage misrepresentation. No Fed governor has been fired since creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. The outcome will be watched closely by investors as there are implications for Fed composition and approach to monetary policy. 

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    William Winkeler

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  • Inheriting Wealth: What You Might Overlook

    Inheriting a large sum of money can be life-changing, but it can also come with increased responsibilities and potential pitfalls. Without careful planning, an inheritance could quickly become a source of stress, conflict, or even potentially lead to financial loss. Many individuals overlook critical considerations that could have long-term consequences.

    Here are some of the most overlooked considerations:

    1. Understanding How the Inheritance Is Structured

    An inheritance may come through a will or a trust, and the structure dramatically affects how and when you receive assets. A will will typically go through probate, which can take months and may incur fees, while a trust may impose restrictions or phased distributions. Misunderstanding these details could delay access to funds or have potential legal complications.

    2. Tax Implications

    Many beneficiaries can be surprised by taxes, including estate taxes, inheritance taxes (depending on your state), and capital gains taxes on investments sold. Retirement accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s typically have strict withdrawal rules as well. Without professional guidance, a misstep here can lead to unwanted tax bills and potentially lost wealth.

    3. Emotional and Family Dynamics

    Inheritance often comes during a period of grief or loss. Decisions made while under stress could lead to overspending, poor investments, or even family disputes. Without clear guidance and communication, these situations could lead to conflict or financial regret.

    4. Revisiting Your Own Financial Plan

    An inheritance can shift your goals, risk tolerance, and financial future overnight. Your old financial plan may no longer fit the amount and type of assets you now own. Revisiting your financial plan can ensure you understand how the inheritance can impact you and your family now and into the future.

    4. Updating Your Estate Documents

    Suddenly receiving a large sum can potentially reveal gaps in your own estate plan. Without a well-designed strategy, you risk depleting your inheritance quickly or failing to protect assets for future generations.

    5. Honoring the Legacy

    Inheritance is often about more than money; it reflects a loved one’s values and intentions. Failing to consider the legacy can lead to decisions that ignore the purpose behind the gift.

    6. Not Working with a Qualified Professional

    Perhaps one of the most critical mistakes is trying to navigate a complex inheritance without guidance. Without professional guidance, it’s easier to mismanage taxes, misinterpret a will or trust, or potentially make investment mistakes that could erode your wealth. Working with a financial advisor can help ensure your inheritance is handled correctly, protects your financial future, and preserves the legacy intended by the person who passed along the assets. The stakes are high, and mistakes could turn a blessing into a costly mistake.

    An inheritance can be both a gift and a responsibility. To protect your wealth, honor your loved one’s legacy, and make smart, strategic decisions, consider reaching out to Confluence Financial Partners. Our team of professionals can help guide you through each step of the inheritance process, helping you turn this opportunity into a lasting foundation for your financial future.

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    Gregory Weimer

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