Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • July 2026 Market Recap

    As Chief Investment Officer at Confluence Financial Partners, Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP® oversees the firm’s investment philosophy, portfolio construction, market research, and overall investment strategy. Each quarter, he provides perspective on the market environment, key economic developments, and investment trends to help investors better understand what is shaping the financial landscape.

    The commentary below is intended for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.

    Month in Review

    • July was a choppy month for equity markets, which saw some pockets of volatility as corporate earnings continued to strengthen, and oil prices rose +20% during the month.
    • Despite a flat month for the S&P 500 (-0.06%, S&P 500 TR Index), market leadership continued to rotate under the surface, leading to larger pockets of dispersion.
    • Large cap growth fell -4.76% (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index), while large cap value rose +3.82% (Russell 1000 Value TR Index) in July. The weakness in semiconductors and AI-related companies explains some of this differential: the Philadelphia Semiconductor TR Index fell -20.8% in July (largest monthly decline since 2008).
    • Long-term bond yields pushed the yield curve higher in July, rising sharply following Kevin Warsh’s press conference after the July FOMC meeting.  The yield of the 30-year US Treasury bond hit a post-2007 high of 5.27% during the month.

    Earnings Driving Stocks in 2026

    The S&P 500 TR Index has returned +10.14% in 2026 through 7/31/2026, and 100% of that return is from dividends and earnings growth. In contrast to recent years, the index’s valuation has actually declined: the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio was 22.0x on 12/31/2025, and fell to 19.6x as of 7/31/2026. This valuation contraction represents a drag on the index’s returns in 2026.

    This shows the strength of earnings growth in 2026. Analysts now expect 2026 earnings for the S&P 500 to grow nearly 30% year/year, having revised growth forecasts sharply higher from the start of 2026. They also expected 13% growth in 2027 and 14% growth in 2028.

    Source; Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, JPMorgan Asset Management. Historical EPS values are based on actual annual EPS. As of 7/31/2026

    The forecasted earnings growth of 30% would be the strongest earnings growth in the last 25 years, outside of post-Pandemic and post-Global Financial Crisis. AI investment represents a significant portion of the forecasted earnings growth, highlighting the increasing importance for the stock market and economy.

    What’s on Deck for August?

    Monetary policy will be in focus, with investors looking for signposts from the Federal Reserve ahead of the September FOMC meeting. The changing communication style was an adjustment for investors, responding to the uncertainty by sending long-term bond yields to 20-year highs. As of 8/3/2026, Fed Fund futures markets are pricing a 62% probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting.

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • Tax-Smart Investing Strategies for High-Earning Professionals

    For high-income professionals, investment outcomes are often influenced not only by portfolio performance, but also tax considerations. As income grows, so does the complexity of managing taxes efficiently. That’s why incorporating tax planning strategies for high earners into an overall wealth management plan may have a meaningful impact on long-term outcomes.

    Whether you’re a business owner, physician, executive, attorney, or other high-income professional, proactive tax planning can help reduce tax drag, improve portfolio efficiency, and create more opportunities for wealth accumulation.

    Why Tax-Smart Investing Matters

    Some investors focus on investment performance while overlooking the impact of taxes. However, taxes may significantly reduce net returns over time. According to Vanguard, tax-efficient portfolio management may potentially add value through withdrawal sequencing and other tax-aware strategies.1

    The goal isn’t necessarily to minimize taxes in a given year; it’s to strategically manage taxes throughout your lifetime while aligning investment decisions with your broader financial objectives.

    1. Prioritize Asset Location

    Asset allocation determines how your portfolio is invested. Asset location determines where those investments are held.

    Different investments generate different types of taxable income. For example:

    • Taxable bonds often generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates.
    • Stocks held for more than one year may qualify for lower long-term capital gains rates.
    • Tax-efficient index funds generally produce fewer taxable distributions.

    By strategically placing investments in taxable accounts, traditional retirement accounts, and Roth accounts, investors may improve after-tax returns without changing their overall investment strategy.

    2. Consider a Roth IRA Conversion Strategy

    A Roth IRA conversion strategy may be a powerful tool for high earners, particularly during years when taxable income is temporarily lower.

    A Roth conversion involves transferring assets from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA and paying taxes on the converted amount today. Future qualified withdrawals from the Roth IRA are tax-free, and Roth IRAs are not subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs) during the owner’s lifetime.

    Potential benefits include:

    • Tax-free growth potential
    • Greater flexibility in retirement income planning
    • Reduced future RMD obligations
    • Potential estate planning advantages for heirs

    However, conversions are not always appropriate for every investor. The decision can depend on current and future tax rates, available cash to pay conversion taxes, retirement timeline, and overall financial goals.

    The IRS reports that Roth IRAs continue to grow in popularity as investors seek additional tax diversification in retirement.2

    3. Utilize Tax-Loss Harvesting Opportunities

    Tax-loss harvesting is a strategy that involves selling investments at a loss to offset realized capital gains.

    When implemented thoughtfully, tax-loss harvesting can help:

    • Reduce current-year tax liability
    • Offset capital gains from other investments
    • Carry excess losses forward into future tax years
    • Improve overall tax efficiency

    Importantly, tax-loss harvesting should not drive investment decisions. Investors must also be mindful of IRS wash-sale rules, which may disallow losses if substantially identical securities are purchased within a specified timeframe.

    During periods of market volatility, tax-loss harvesting opportunities may become more abundant, creating potential tax benefits while maintaining a disciplined investment approach.

    4. Maximize Tax-Advantaged Savings Opportunities

    One effective tax planning strategy for high earners is maximizing contributions to available tax-advantaged accounts.

    Depending on eligibility, this may include:

    • Employer-sponsored retirement plans such as 401(k)s
    • Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)
    • Backdoor Roth IRA contributions
    • Defined benefit or cash balance plans for business owners

    For 2026, retirement account contribution limits remain an important planning consideration for high-income individuals seeking to reduce current taxable income while building long-term wealth.3

    Regularly reviewing contribution opportunities may help you take advantage of tax benefits that may be available based on your individual circumstances.

    5. Be Strategic About Capital Gains

    High-income investors often face additional taxes on investment income, including the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT).

    Managing capital gains may involve:

    • Holding investments for more than one year to qualify for long-term capital gains treatment
    • Coordinating gains with lower-income years
    • Donating appreciated securities to charitable organizations
    • Using losses to offset gains when appropriate

    A proactive approach can help reduce unnecessary tax exposure and preserve more of your investment returns.

    6. Coordinate Investments with Your Financial Plan

    Tax-efficient investing is typically most effective when evaluated in context of a comprehensive financial plan.

    Investment decisions should align with:

    • Retirement income needs
    • Estate planning objectives
    • Charitable giving goals
    • Business succession plans
    • Risk management strategies

    Without coordination, investors may miss opportunities to improve tax efficiency across multiple areas of their financial lives.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, our team helps clients align investment management with comprehensive financial planning to support more coordinated and intentional wealth strategies.

    Learn more about our Investment Management Services and Financial Planning Services.

    The Bottom Line

    Taxes are one of the largest expenses many high-income professionals will face throughout their lifetime. While investment returns remain important, incorporating tax-smart investing strategies for high earners may influence after-tax outcomes and support long-term wealth accumulation.

    Strategies such as thoughtful asset location, a Roth IRA conversion strategy, tax-loss harvesting, and coordinated financial planning can help investors make more informed decisions and potentially retain more of their hard-earned wealth.

    As always, tax strategies should be evaluated within the context of your unique financial circumstances and in coordination with your financial advisor and tax professional.

    If you’d like to discuss how these strategies may fit into your financial plan, we invite you to connect with our team. Request a Consultation to start the conversation.

    Sources

    1. Vanguard – “Putting a Value on Your Value: Quantifying Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha”
      https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/IWE_ResPuttingAValueOnValue
    2. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – Retirement Topics: Roth IRAs
      https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/roth-iras
    3. IRS – Retirement Plan Contribution Limits
      https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-announces-401k-limit-increases

    The information presented herein is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon information provided to Confluence and from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice. Confluence Financial Partners and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

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    Gregory Weimer

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  • Q2 2026 Market Recap

    As Chief Investment Officer at Confluence Financial Partners, Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP® oversees the firm’s investment philosophy, portfolio construction, market research, and overall investment strategy. Each quarter, he provides perspective on the market environment, key economic developments, and investment trends to help investors better understand what is shaping the financial landscape.

    The commentary below is intended for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered personalized investment advice.

    Strongest Quarter Since 2020 for Stocks 

    • S&P 500 posted its strongest quarter since the second quarter of 2020 as geopolitical pressures eased and earnings growth accelerated 
    • Driven by record AI-related capital expenditures, earnings growth sharply accelerated during the quarter, but also broadened to other areas of the equity market  
    • Economic growth firmed during the quarter, along with an uptick in job creation, steadying the outlook for the labor market 
    • Interest rate outlook shifted significantly, with investors no longer expecting rate cuts in 2026, as Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve  

    What Happened in the Second Quarter?  

    Equity markets had one of their stronger quarters in recent memory, with the S&P 500 TR Index returning +15.2%, its best quarter since the second quarter of 2020. The sharp decline in energy prices was a tailwind (Brent crude oil fell -38% during the quarter), along with a continued increase in earnings growth expectations throughout the quarter. IPO activity returned in a big way as well, with SpaceX listing on public exchanges to much fanfare. To learn more about how IPOs work and what investors should consider, read our guide to initial public offerings.

    Technology stocks rebounded during the quarter on the back of record investment in artificial intelligence, which helped push large cap growth stocks +16.74% higher in 2Q 2026 (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index). Domestically, value stocks (+13.87%, Russell 1000 Value TR index) and small cap stocks (+21.49%, Russell 2000 TR Index) also had strong quarters. Small cap stocks, particularly profitable small cap companies, continue to trade a sharp discount to large cap stock indices, despite an improving earnings growth outlook.  

    International equity markets also had a positive quarter despite higher sensitivity to energy prices. Developed international equities rose +10.82% (MSCI EAFE NR USD Index), and emerging markets benefitted from the Technology rally, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity NR USD Index rising +24.05% during the quarter.  

    Sources: Morningstar, Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, US Large Caps = S&P 500 TR Index, US Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, US Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, US Large Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index

    S&P 500 Dividend Yield Near 30 Year Lows 

    The S&P 500’s dividend yield stands at roughly 1% today, which is near its lowest level in the last 30 years. This has not always been the case- dividends have historically played an important part of an investor’s total return in the stock market: since the 1930s, dividends have represented 59% of an investor’s total return in the S&P 500 Index. However, when diving deeper into the data, there has been a significant shift over the last 20 years- particularly since 2020. Since 2020, dividends have only represented 15.4% of the S&P 500’s total return. What is driving this trend?  

    For the S&P 500, a significant driver has been the shifting composition of the index. Today, roughly 37% of the index is represented by Technology companies, with another 10% represented by Communication Services companies. With nearly half the index in Technology/Technology-related companies, their preferences have a significant impact on the index. These companies tend to favor share buybacks over dividends and have more recently increased capital expenditures. The net impact is significant: the dividend payout ratio of the S&P 500 is at all-time low (portion of a company’s earnings paid out in dividends).  

    Sources: Morningstar Direct, 12-month dividend yield represented by the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

    Various valuation metrics for the S&P 500 Index are also elevated for investors; this also includes metrics relative to fixed income investments. Even when combining the benefit of dividend yield and share buybacks, the total shareholder return for the S&P 500 is well below the current yield on 10-year US Treasuries. Illustrated another way, only 8% of the S&P 500 companies have a dividend yield greater than the yield of the 10-Year US Treasury, well below the 30-year average of 20%.  

    The implication for investors is important – for those with primary or secondary objectives of income, the composition of their equity exposure is an increasingly important consideration. Confluence’s Investment Advisory Committee works closely with our advisors and their clients on considerations such as this – read more about our investment process here.  

    What’s Ahead for the Third Quarter? 

    The on-going negotiations in the Middle East will remain top of mind, given the lingering pressures on energy supply globally. This also drives increased focus on inflation data and Federal Reserve policy, which is undergoing changes under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Futures markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 0.25% interest rate hike by 9/16/2026 (as of 7/1/2026).  

    Investment in artificial intelligence, particularly its components, is also top of mind for investors. Pricing pressures are emerging in components such as memory chips, with companies such as Apple having to pass on price increases to end consumers. Apple raised prices of laptops and desktops by 15% to 25% in June, along with other product offerings. Continued broadening of pricing pressures due to AI investment will be closely watched by investors.  

    About the Author

    Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP® serves as Chief Investment Officer at Confluence Financial Partners, where he leads the firm’s investment philosophy, portfolio construction, market research, and investment strategy. He chairs the firm’s Investment Advisory Committee and has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry. Bill holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Pittsburgh and is both a Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA®) charterholder and a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional. Through his market commentary, he provides educational insights to help investors better understand economic and market developments.

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

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    William Winkeler

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  • Understanding Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): What Investors Should Know

    As Chief Investment Officer at Confluence Financial Partners, Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP® oversees the firm’s investment strategy and market research. Below, he explores the opportunities and risks associated with Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).

    An Initial Public Offering (IPO) occurs when a private company offers shares of its stock to the public for the first time and begins trading on a public stock exchange. IPOs often generate significant media attention, particularly when well-known or high-growth companies enter the public markets. While the excitement surrounding an IPO can be compelling, it is important for investors to understand both the opportunities and risks involved.

    What Makes IPOs Attractive?

    Investors are often drawn to IPOs because they can provide an opportunity to invest in a company during the early stages of its public market journey. Successful IPOs can experience strong demand and significant price appreciation, particularly when the company has a compelling growth story, strong financial performance, or operates in a rapidly expanding industry. In fact, according to research from IPO expert Jay Ritter of the University of Florida, the average U.S. IPO generated a first-day gain of approximately 19% from its offering price to its closing price, highlighting the potential for strong initial investor enthusiasm.1

    Potential Risks of IPO Investing

    While IPOs can offer upside potential, they also carry unique risks:

    • Limited Public Track Record: Newly public companies often have less publicly available financial and operating history than established public companies. The SEC notes that newly public companies may have limited operating histories and publicly available information, which can make evaluating risks and future prospects more challenging for investors.4
    • Price Volatility: IPO share prices can fluctuate significantly during the first days, weeks, and months of trading. These risks can have a meaningful impact on long-term investment outcomes.

    Research from IPO expert Jay Ritter of the University of Florida found that investors who purchased IPOs at the end of their first day of trading historically earned returns that were approximately 21% lower than a value-weighted market index over the subsequent three years, underscoring the importance of careful due diligence and maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment approach.2

    • Valuation Uncertainty: Determining a company’s fair value can be challenging, particularly for rapidly growing businesses.
    • Lock-Up Expirations: Early investors and company insiders are often restricted from selling shares for a period after the IPO. When these restrictions expire, increased selling activity may impact the stock price.
    • Concentration Risk: Investing heavily in a single IPO can create unnecessary portfolio risk.

    Who Are IPOs Suitable For?

    IPO investments may be more appropriate for investors who:

    • Have a high tolerance for risk and volatility.
    • Maintain a diversified investment portfolio.
    • Have a long-term investment horizon.
    • Understand that IPO performance can be unpredictable.

    IPOs are typically less suitable for investors whose primary objectives are capital preservation, income generation, or minimizing short-term market fluctuations.

    Common IPO Misconceptions

    “If I can get shares in an IPO, I’ll automatically make money.”

    There is no guarantee that an IPO’s share price will rise after it begins trading. While some IPOs perform well, others may trade below their offering price.

    “Popular companies always make successful investments.”

    A well-known brand or strong media attention does not necessarily translate into attractive long-term investment returns.

    “Getting access to an IPO means I’m investing before everyone else.”

    By the time a company reaches the IPO stage, it has often already received substantial investment from founders, venture capital firms, private equity firms, and other early investors.

    “All IPOs are available to all investors.”

    Access to IPO shares is often limited. Many offerings allocate shares to institutional investors and select brokerage clients, and demand frequently exceeds available supply. In fact, institutional investors typically receive the majority of IPO allocations, with historical institutional-to-retail allocation splits often around 90/10. As a result, individual investors may have limited access to IPO shares or receive only a small portion of their requested allocation.3

    The Bottom Line

    IPOs can be an exciting component of the capital markets and may offer attractive growth opportunities. However, they should be evaluated with the same discipline applied to any investment decision. Investors should carefully consider the company’s fundamentals, valuation, risk profile, and how the investment fits within their broader financial planning and long-term objectives.

    As with any investment, a well-diversified portfolio and a disciplined investment management strategy can help investors pursue long-term financial goals.

    Important Note: Access to IPOs may be subject to brokerage, custodian, regulatory, or employer restrictions. Investors are encouraged to review any applicable policies and eligibility requirements before seeking to participate in an offering. Investing in IPOs involves significant risk, including potential loss of principal, limited operating history, and price volatility. IPO shares may not be available to all investors, and allocation is not guaranteed.

    About the Author

    Bill Winkeler, CFA, CFP® serves as Chief Investment Officer at Confluence Financial Partners, where he oversees the firm’s investment philosophy, portfolio construction, market research, and investment strategy. With extensive experience in financial markets and wealth management, Bill shares general commentary on investment topics for informational purposes only and not as personalized investment advice to support investor education.

    Sources

    1. Jay Ritter, University of Florida (cited by The Wall Street Journal, 2026): https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/
    2. Jay Ritter IPO research: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/
    3. Fidelity IPO Share Allocation Process: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/trading/ipo-share-allocation-process
    4. SEC Investor Bulletin: Investing in an IPO: https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-17

    Any views expressed are those of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. d/b/a Confluence Financial Partners is a SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. The content on this page is provided as general information only and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument by Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. Investing involves risk; clients may experience a profit or a loss. Please refer to our Form ADV Part 2A and Form CRS for further information regarding our investment services and their corresponding risks. Additional information about Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. is available on the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (IAPD) website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

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    William Winkeler

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  • May 2026 Market Recap

    Month in Review

    • Markets around the world continued to rally from the late March lows, as oil prices fell sharply amidst optimism of a long-term ceasefire in Iran and earnings expectations continued to increase.  
    • The S&P 500 Index rose +5.26% in May (S&P 500 TR Index), driven by large AI-related companies. The market capitalization index rose nearly double the equal weighted index, highlighting the trend of increasing concentration in the market (+2.68%, S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index).
    • Large cap growth stocks outpaced all other markets in May (+7.20%, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index), benefiting from significant exposure to Technology stocks: Technology sector alone represents 53% of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
    • Bond market dealt with competing forces in May: investors continued to reduce the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026, but oil prices had their largest monthly decline since early 2020. The result was a mild monthly gain for the bond market, with the Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index rising +0.31% in May.

    Market Concentration Back to Highs

    Technology and AI-related companies powered the S&P 500 higher in May, extending the rally that began in late March. Technology stocks have led the way, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising +8.43% in May, which is also shifting the composition of the overall equity market.

    After declining from record levels of concentration, the S&P 500 has once again become extremely concentrated: the top 10 companies in the index represent 40.6% of the market capitalization. While this is below the near 50-year record set in 2025, this is a sharp reversal from recent broadening of leadership (the top 10 companies represented 37.9% of the market as recently as March 31, 2026). What is driving this shift? Earnings.

    First quarter earnings showed the strength of AI-related spend, with earnings estimates surprising to the upside at a level rarely seen outside of post-recessionary recoveries. Analysts expected AI Hyperscalers to invest over $800bn in AI-related capex in the next 12-months; an important factor driving overall earnings growth higher. These companies are also amongst the larger companies in the market, and responsible for the sharp increase in concentration since late March.

    Source: Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of May 29, 2026

    What’s on Deck for June?

    Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve and will begin to oversee the FOMC in June. His tenure starts at a time of increasing dispersion of views amongst Federal Reserve members and a shifting investor outlook toward interest rate policy.  

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

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    William Winkeler

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  • The Wealth Thresholds That May Reshape Decision-Making: $5M, $10M, $25M, and $50M+

    As wealth grows, so does complexity. Explore how key wealth milestones may influence financial priorities, risk perception, governance needs, and the pursuit of long-term alignment.

    The wealth thresholds that quietly reshape decision-making

    Wealth rarely changes life in one clean break. It often changes in stages. Not because the numbers themselves have magic, but because each level can introduce different kinds of complexity, responsibility, and decision considerations.

    What is often overlooked is that the transition is not just financial. It can be structural and psychological at the same time. The portfolio evolves, but so can the way decisions get made, how risk is perceived, and what “enough” starts to mean.

    Below is a practical framework for how these thresholds may show up in practice.

    Around $5M: The shift from accumulation to awareness

    At roughly $5M, many people still think like accumulators. The habits that created the wealth are still running the show, but something subtle may change. Complexity can begin to increase.

    This is often the point where:

    • Wealth may no longer be concentrated in a single account type or strategy
    • Tax decisions can begin to have noticeable, year-to-year impact
    • Real estate, business equity, or concentrated stock positions may become more relevant
    • Financial decisions may begin to feel more interconnected

    The psychological shift can also evolve. There is often an early awareness that “doing well” is different from “having it organized well.”

    This is where structure may start to matter, even if it has not yet been fully developed.

    Around $10M: Complexity becomes more persistent

    At $10M, the financial picture may become less straightforward, even if it appears organized on the surface.

    This is where fragmentation can become a real risk. Not necessarily because of poor investing, but because of the number of moving parts involved.

    Common dynamics may include:

    • Multiple account types, advisors, or planning inputs without full integration
    • Tax strategy becoming continuous rather than episodic
    • Estate planning moving beyond basic documents
    • Liquidity planning becoming more relevant, especially for business owners
    • Increasing decision fatigue as options and structures multiply

    The psychological shift here is subtle but persistent. Some individuals feel increasingly “successful but uncoordinated.” Not because things are broken, but because alignment becomes more complex.

    Around $25M: The transition to preservation and governance

    At $25M, the priorities may begin to shift. The focus can move from building wealth toward sustaining it across time and generations.

    At this stage, governance may become as important as investment performance.

    You may see:

    • More formal use of trusts, entities, and structured ownership
    • A growing share of assets outside traditional public markets
    • Increased attention to estate design and intergenerational considerations
    • More intentional communication within families about money and expectations
    • Risk management expanding beyond markets into legal, family, and operational exposure

    The key shift is that volatility is not limited to markets. It becomes life-driven. Business transitions, liquidity events, health changes, and family dynamics can carry equal weight.

    At this level, the challenge is less about optimization and more about maintaining coherence across moving parts.

    $50M and beyond: Wealth becomes a system

    At $50M+, wealth often stops behaving like a portfolio and may begin to function more like a private system.

    The structure can become more institutional in nature, even when privately controlled.

    Common characteristics may include:

    • Family office or family office-like coordination
    • A diversified capital base across public markets, private investments, real estate, and direct deals
    • Philanthropy that is strategic, structured, and long-term in orientation
    • Tax considerations embedded into many major financial decisions
    • Broader risk considerations that may include reputation, governance, and generational alignment

    The psychological shift is important here. Constraints are often less financial. They become organizational and relational.

    The central challenges become maintaining alignment, keeping strategy, structure, and intent moving in the same direction across complexity that no longer naturally self-organizes.

    When Everything Grows Except Alignment

    What can change after $5M, $10M, $25M, and $50M is not just the size of the balance sheet. It can be the environment in which decisions are made, and the discipline required to keep those decisions aligned over time.

    Clarity often comes from understanding how structure, strategy, and behavior interact and where they may drift apart.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we work with clients to bring structure and clarity to increasingly complex financial situations. If you believe your current approach could benefit from greater alignment, we welcome a conversation.

    request a consultation

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    Greg Weimer

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  • April 2026 Market Recap

    Month in Review

    • Equity markets across the globe rebounded sharply in April, defying expectations of a longer drawdown given the oil shock supply. Corporate earnings remain supportive of stock prices.
    • Technology, large cap growth, and small cap stocks led the rebound higher, with the Russell 1000 Growth TR Index rising +11.90% in April. Value stocks largely kept pace, with the Russell 1000 Value TR Index rising +8.16% for the month.
    • Small cap stocks rose +12.21% (Russell 2000 TR Index) in April, benefitting from stronger-than-expected economic fundamentals given their higher sensitivity to economic growth.  
    • Long-term Treasury yields rose during April, with the 30-year Treasury touching 5% towards the end of the month. This kept a lid on core bonds, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index rising +0.11% in April.

    What Powered the Recovery in April?

    The S&P 500’s +10.49% total return in April was the second best April for the S&P 500 going back to 1950. This outcome was somewhat surprising to investors given the potential headwinds from roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply being offline. Putting aside the forward-looking nature of financial markets, a key catalyst was the fundamental support that strengthened in March and April. Corporate earnings have defied expectations of a decline and actually saw accelerated growth since the conflict in Iran started.

    Historically, in any given year, estimate for corporate earnings decline over time. This year has seen the opposite happen: estimates for 2026 earnings and 2027 earnings for the S&P 500 have increased since the conflict began in late February. As of 4/30/2026, first quarter S&P 500 earnings are on track for 16% growth year/year, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Now the full year 2026 earnings estimates are tracking to low double-digit growth- a key factor supporting the rapid recovery in April.

    What’s on Deck for May?

    • Kevin Warsh is set to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve as Jerome Powell’s term as Chairman ends. Thus far, Powell has indicated he will stay on as a Governor, an unusual outcome relative to recent history.
    • Investors will closely watch for resolution with the Iranian conflict. Globally, oil reserves started 2026 at high levels but are being drawn down rapidly as supply of oil remains largely restricted from the region.

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

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    William Winkeler

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  • Things to Consider when Choosing a Financial Planner for Retirement

    Planning for retirement is a journey, and like any journey, having the right guide can make all the difference. A skilled financial planner can help you navigate complex decisions, avoid costly mistakes, and create a strategy that aligns with your goals and values. But with so many advisors available, how do you choose the one who’s right for you?

    Look for the Right Qualities

    A strong financial planner should be able to combine technical expertise with a genuine understanding of your personal goals. Look for someone who:

    • Communicates clearly and listens attentively
    • Demonstrates transparency about their services and fees
    • Shows patience and willingness to educate you about your options
    • Understands retirement planning holistically, including investments, taxes, estate planning, and risk management

    Understand Fiduciaries vs. Non-Fiduciaries

    One of the most important distinctions in financial planning is whether the planner is a fiduciary. Fiduciaries are legally required to act in your best interest, whereas non-fiduciaries may offer advice that benefits their own business or commissions. Choosing a fiduciary can help to ensure that your financial well-being is the advisor’s top priority.

    Ask the Right Questions During Consultations

    An initial meeting with a financial planner is as much about evaluating them as it is about exploring your options. Some questions to consider:

    • What is your approach to retirement planning?
    • How do you stay current with financial regulations and strategies?
    • What credentials and experience do you have?
    • How do you charge for your services, and are there any potential conflicts of interest?
    • Can you provide references from clients with similar goals?

    Evaluate Experience, Credentials, and Fees

    Credentials such as CFP® (Certified Financial Planner), CPA (Certified Public Accountant), or CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) signal formal education, ongoing training, and adherence to ethical standards. Experience in retirement planning specifically is equally important, as it demonstrates familiarity with the nuances of long-term financial strategies. Fee structures vary. Some planners charge a percentage of assets, while others use flat or hourly fees. Ensure the approach aligns with your budget and expectations.

    Align on Goals and Values

    A Financial Planner who understands your goals and priorities can help support your retirement planning process. They should respect your risk tolerance, consider your lifestyle goals, and be willing to create a personalized plan rather than offering a one-size-fits-all solution.

    Red Flags to Watch For

    Not every financial planner is the right fit. Be cautious if you notice any of the following:

    • Lack of transparency about fees – Vague or evasive answers could lead to unexpected costs.
    • Pushy sales tactics – Avoid planners who pressure you into specific investments or “act now” strategies.
    • No fiduciary commitment – Non-fiduciaries may prioritize commissions over your best interests.
    • One-size-fits-all approach – Cookie-cutter solutions rarely meet individual goals.
    • Poor communication – If questions go unanswered or you feel unheard, the partnership may be frustrating.

    Being aware of these warning signs helps ensure you choose a planner who genuinely supports your retirement goals.

    Take the First Step

    Choosing the right financial planner is a decision that can shape your retirement and peace of mind. If you’re in need of a financial planner or would like a second opinion on your current retirement plan, reach out to us to schedule a consultation. We aim to help you understand your retirement options so you can make more informed choices about your plan.

    REQUEST A CONSULTATION

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    Greg Weimer

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  • Why Education Plays an Important Role in Your Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plan

    Why Education Plays an Important Role in Your Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plan

    When employers offer retirement benefits such as 401(k) plans or other defined contribution programs, they are providing an incredibly valuable tool for their workforce. But simply offering a plan may not be enough. The real value typically comes when employees understand how to use that benefit effectively. That is where education becomes a crucial element, not just a nice extra, but a foundational element of a retirement plan that drives meaningful outcomes.

    Education Can Boost Participation and Engagement

    Research shows that education significantly increases employee participation in retirement plans. One study found that 91 percent of employees who had access to financial wellness education enrolled in their workplace retirement plan compared with 76 percent enrollment without it. That is a 15-percentage point increase driven purely by education (nhbr.com).

    Education Can Lead to Better Savings Behavior and Higher Balances

    Participation is just the start. Education also influences how much employees save. According to data from a major retirement provider, study participants who engage with educational tools or financial advice save 29 percent more than those who do not and often have twice the account balance as their less educated peers (napa-net.org).

    Understanding the mechanics of saving, compounding returns, employer matches, and investment choices can help employees make more informed decisions about their retirement plans.

    Education Can Help Employees Understand the Purpose Behind Saving

    People may make more informed financial choices when they understand the purpose behind them. A 2026 survey found that 60 percent of eligible workers who were not contributing to their retirement plan cited a lack of plan awareness and understanding of features like employer match as the primary reason for inaction, compared with 23 percent who pointed to perceived unaffordability. In fact, about 30 percent said they simply did not know how the plan works or how to get started. This underscores how important clear communication and education are in motivating participation and engagement. (ascensus.com)

    Retirement plans are complex financial tools and without clear guidance even valuable benefits can feel overwhelming or confusing. Education can bridge the gap, helping employees see how decisions today affect their future quality of life and giving them the confidence to act.

    Education Can Complement Plan Design

    Plan design and automatic features such as auto enrollment have been shown to increase participation and savings on their own. But even the most thoughtfully designed plans can be more effective when participants understand them. Education reinforces plan features such as matching contributions or default escalation and encourage employees take full advantage of what is offered.

    Employees are more likely to contribute enough to capture the full employer match when they understand it is essentially “free money”. Workers who engage with educational tools are more likely to see beyond short term needs and prioritize long term retirement goals.

    Education Can Reflect a Commitment to Employee Financial Wellness

    Retirement readiness is not just a financial issue; it is a major component of overall financial wellness. When companies provide employee education, it reflects a commitment to supporting their teams’ understanding of available benefits and financial concepts. This may in turn build trust, improve morale and may enhance the value of the retirement program itself.

    A retirement plan with no education component risks becoming a checkbox benefit something employees know exists but do not fully understand or use. Education can transform a benefit into a behavioral shift where employees are informed, engaged and empowered.

    Conclusion

    At Confluence Retirement Plan Services, we believe that education is the foundation of a successful retirement plan. Our approach goes beyond simply offering a plan. We work with employers to provide ongoing education that helps employees understand how contributions work, how to maximize employer matches, and how to make informed investment decisions. By providing clear guidance and support, we help employees feel confident and engaged in their retirement journey. When employees understand their options and the impact of their choices, Confluence Retirement Plan Services can play a more active role in supporting their long-term planning efforts.

    Interested in enhancing your retirement plan for your employees? Start a new plan or review your current one with Confluence Retirement Plan Services and see the difference education can make.

    start the conversation

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    David Graver

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  • First Quarter 2026 Market Recap

    First Quarter 2026 Market Recap

    Geopolitical Headwinds in 2026

    • Escalating tensions in the Middle East sent energy prices sharply higher during the quarter, with US gasoline rising above $4.00/gallon nationally for the first time since 2022.
    • Rising energy prices during the quarter put the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts on hold for the near-term, with investors now pricing in zero interest rate cuts in 2026.
    • During the quarter, almost all major stock markets fell between 8% and 10% from their 2026 high levels, due in large part to the rise in energy prices and lower likelihood of interest rate cuts.
    • Underlying fundamentals were still strong heading into the start of the conflict in Iran, despite weakness in AI-related equities and private credit.

    What Happened in the First Quarter?

    Equity markets started 2026 on a strong note, with broad equity market leadership and participation. That changed in late February, with the start of the conflict with Iran, causing energy prices to rise sharply higher. This introduced volatility into the broad equity and fixed income markets, with most major equity markets experiencing a correction from their high levels in January (correction is a decline greater than 10%). However, some equity markets fared better during the first quarter: large cap value (Russell 1000 Value TR Index, +2.10%) and small cap stocks (Russell 2000 TR Index, +0.89%) captured less downside than large cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, -9.78%), for example. International equities, which started 2026 on a strong note, suffered from a strengthening US dollar and higher energy prices, pushing the markets lower in March and mildly lower for the quarter (MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR USD Index, -0.71% for the first quarter)

    The market’s expectations of the oil supply disruption have not reduced corporate earnings expectations yet- earnings estimates have actually risen through quarter-end. This resulted in stocks becoming cheaper this month: S&P 500 is down -5% in March, but with 2026 earnings expectations increasing, has taken the forward P/E ratio to roughly 19x forward earnings (peaked over 23x in October 2025).

    Sources: Morningstar, Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, US Large Caps = S&P 500 TR Index, US Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, Emerging Markets = MSCI Emerging Markets NR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, US Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, US Large Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index

    The bond market experienced a month of positive correlation to the stock market in March: core bonds decline with equities, albeit to a lesser degree (Bloomberg Barclays Agg Bond TR Index fell -1.76% in March, taking 1Q2026 to -0.05%). This was primarily because of the short-term increase in inflation expectations due to rising energy costs, which reduce the probability of interest rate cuts in 2026. As of 3/31/2026, futures markets were pricing zero interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a sharp change from the start of 2026. Also, within fixed income, private credit investments continue to come under pressure from significant investor redemptions, as investors become cautious on the asset class after years of significant asset growth.

    Other diversifying asset classes also struggled. After a strong 12-18 months, gold prices declined in March (Spot gold prices declined -10.85% during the month). Cryptocurrencies faired modestly better in March but are still experiencing a challenging period: Bitcoin rose +3.38%% in March, but is still down -22.55% in 2026.

    Equity Markets & Energy Shocks

    The current supply disruption of oil (and natural gas) is the most significant in history, with nearly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply being removed from the market. This has pushed energy prices sharply higher: the price of Brent crude oil rose over 55% higher March, the largest monthly percentage increase in its history. Naturally, the relationship between equity markets and energy shocks has come into focus in 2026.

    It is important to note that this relationship has evolved somewhat over time: for example, the United States is the largest single country producer of oil and natural gas today (22% share), an increase from the energy shocks of the 1970’s. Energy sensitivity at the consumer level is also lower today compared to 50 years ago: energy expenditures as a share of disposable income was roughly 5.9%, compared to the 1984 peak of 10% of disposable income.

    Sources: Capital Group, U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data includes petroleum and other liquids such as biodiesel, ethanol, liquids produced from coal, gas, and oil shale, Orimulsion, blending components, and other hydrocarbons. Latest data available is 2024 as of February 28, 2026. 

    Looking at seven oil shocks since 1990 (not counting the present), the S&P 500 has typically traded lower following the start of the rise in oil prices. However, one year after the disruptions, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12% return. The greater question is whether the supply shock is severe enough to push the economy into a recession (similar to the 1970s episode), which could result in greater downside for the S&P 500. Prompt resolution to the significant supply shock is paramount to equities following the underlying fundamental strength they had to start 2026.

    What’s Ahead for the Second Quarter?

    Investors will be closely monitoring for any potential resolution of the oil supply shock; prolonged remove of supply risks pushing energy prices even higher. The higher energy prices have moved short-term inflation expectations higher, which is expected to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates in the Second Quarter and beyond. Mid-term elections are also inching closer, which historically has been a source of short-term volatility for equity markets.

    Relative weakness in Technology and AI will also be closely watched by investors: expected AI-related capital expenditures in 2026 nearly reached a massive $700bn but may be showing signs of having peaked. Related to this is the on-going pressure in the private credit space, which grew significantly in size over the last five years.

    Overall earnings are still expected to be strong – nearly 13% earnings growth expected for 1Q2026 (which will be released during the second quarter). Earnings have bucked the energy shock to date, likely reflecting expectations of a prompt resolution.

    *Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S & P 500 Index is a broad, unmanaged index of 500 of the largest US publicly traded companies and does not reflect the impact of fees, taxes or expenses. Any investment in the S&P 500 or similar indices, like the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and they do not reflect the costs of investing in an actual portfolio. Investors should consider their individual risk, tolerance, investment objectives, and consult with a financial professional before making investment decisions.

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    William Winkeler

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