Bear Markets – Did You Know?

If you’ve watched the news or browsed the web at all recently, no doubt you have seen the term “Bear Market” quite frequently. This term is often used when the worlds’ stock markets go through difficult periods, but what does it mean? And what should investors do about it? Here are five points to consider that will hopefully offer you perspective and confidence:

1. What is a Bear Market? A bear market is generally defined as a stock market decline of at least 20%. The recent market decline (S&P 500) we’ve experienced in 2020 went from the peak in February to the trough in March of -34%.
2. How often do bear markets occur? Since 1949, the S&P 500 has experienced 10 declines of at least 20%, or one every 7 years on average.
3. How long do they typically last?  Since 1949, the average bear market has lasted about 14 months. The average bear market total return was -33%.
4. Bull vs. Bear – Good News! Since 1949, the average bull market has lasted nearly 5 times as long as the average bear market. The average bull market lasted about 71 months and had an average total return of 263% over that time period.
5. A $10,000 hypothetical investment in the S&P 500 in 1980 (with dividends being reinvested) would have grown to more than $870,000 by the end of 2019. During that time period, the investor would have experienced 4 bear markets, 20 market corrections of 10% or more, and 5 recessions.

Key Takeaway: As difficult and unsettling as bear markets can be, it is important to understand that we “earn” the bull markets by being disciplined and patient during the bear markets. The reason that equities can make relatively high returns over time is that those returns are unpredictable in the short-term.

Sources: Capital Group, RIMES, Standard & Poor’s, 2020; MFS Market Insights, 2020; Vanguard Understanding market downturns, 2020; JP Morgan Guide to Markets, 2020.

Traditional 401(k) vs. Roth 401(k)

Retirement plans can be confusing – we know! The decision of whether to contribute to a Traditional 401(k) or a Roth 401(k) is one that many people have or will encounter at some point in their lives. Although these two types of retirement accounts are very similar, they also have key differences. As more and more employers begin to offer a Roth 401(k) option, you should make sure that you have an understanding of each so that you can make the most informed decision possible.

What is the difference?

The main difference between a Traditional or Pre-Tax 401(k) and a Roth 401(k) is the tax impact. With a Traditional 401(k), you receive a tax benefit for your contribution now, but are taxed on the withdrawals later. A Roth 401(k), however, does not provide a tax benefit now. As a result of paying tax on your contribution now, the Roth option allows for tax-free withdrawals later.

Here is a quick example to help explain the tax difference between the two options. This year, if you contribute $10,000 to a Traditional 401(k) and were taxed at a fictional rate of 15% (this would depend on your tax bracket) the $10,000 contribution would decrease your current year taxes by $1,500. If you contributed $10,000 to a Roth 401(k) instead, there would be no reduction to your current year taxes. If we fast forward to retirement and assume the $10,000 contribution is now worth $50,000, there will again be a difference between the two upon withdrawal. If you made a withdrawal of the entire $50,000, the full $50,000 would be taxed at your retirement tax rate with a Traditional 401(k), but the entire $50,000 would be withdrawn tax-free if it were originally invested in a Roth 401(k).

As you can see, the current tax benefit is greater with the Traditional 401(k), but the future tax benefits are better upon withdrawal from a Roth 401(k). One other item to note is that these facts hold no matter what the withdrawal amount is. No matter the amount, a withdrawal from a Traditional 401(k) is generally all taxable and a withdrawal from a Roth 401(k) is generally tax-free.

Which is right for you?

Unfortunately, the answer is that it depends. The primary question to ask yourself is: will my tax rate now or during retirement be higher? If you are in the beginning of your career or expect your income during retirement to be more than it is today, a Roth 401(k) may be right for you. If you believe your tax rate now is going to be higher than what it will be during retirement, then a Traditional 401(k) may be the best option for you.

Another advantage of the Roth 401(k) is that in addition to your original contribution, the growth of the account can be withdrawn tax-free! This is not the case with a Traditional 401(k). Also, if your employer provides a contribution match, you would need to pay tax on this portion of your account at the time of withdrawal whether you use a Traditional or Roth 401(k) as it is a pre-tax contribution.

Other considerations

There are several other differences between the Traditional and Roth 401(k) options that you may want to consider.

• Required minimum distributions (RMDs) – Beginning at age 72, there are required minimum distributions from both 401(k) options unless you are still working. However, a Roth 401(k) could be rolled over to a Roth IRA. Unlike Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs do not have required minimum distributions.
• Estate planning – Inheriting a Roth retirement account is more beneficial to your heirs than a Traditional account. This is because they would generally not have to pay tax on distributions from the inherited Roth account, whereas they would have to pay tax on distributions from the Traditional.
• Law changes – Just as we can’t predict what your future tax rate will look like we also can’t predict law changes that could occur. Any law changes during your lifetime could change the results of this decision for yourself or your heirs. For example, the recent SECURE Act pushed back RMDs from age 70 ½ to age 72. It also requires an inherited IRA to be distributed within 10 years of inheritance rather than over the beneficiary’s lifetime. This could be a reason to contribute to both a Traditional and a Roth 401(k) to give yourself tax diversification across different accounts. Many employers will allow you to split your contributions between the two.

Conclusion

In summary, there is no easy answer to what type of 401(k) option is better. The decision will depend on your individual circumstances and most likely will change throughout your life. Using the information above should hopefully give you a good starting point to be able to make the most informed decision possible.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us if you would like to discuss further!

401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty. Roth 401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Contributions to a Roth 401(k) are never tax deductible, but if certain conditions are met, distributions will be completely income tax free. Unlike Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k) participants are subject to required minimum distributions at age 72. RMD’s are generally subject to federal income tax and may be subject to state taxes. Consult your tax advisor to assess your situation.

Any opinions are those of Gregory Weimer and Chuck Ziants and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Month in Review

• Stocks fell during the month of October, marking the third straight monthly decline for the S&P 500 Index.
• Bond markets also fell again during the month, the fifth straight monthly decline for the asset class.
• Concerns over US government funding helped keep interest rates higher in October, pressuring stock and bond markets again.
• US corporate earnings season is also in full swing, with over 50% of the S&P 500 having reported by the end of the month. Companies have thus far reported positive earnings growth with mixed outlooks.

$96 Trillion is going to pass from one generation to the next over the coming 30 years.

This is either going to go smoothly or poorly, and much of that answer will come down to estate planning.

Your estate plan is a crucial aspect of securing your family’s future, and communicating this wealth plan effectively to your children is perhaps even more important.

Here are 4 key strategies to help ensure your heirs are ready:

1. Talk About It

This might seem basic, but start the conversation early. Don’t wait for a crisis to discuss your estate plan. Start the conversation with your children while everyone is in good health and spirits. Choose a suitable time and place for the discussion, ensuring minimal distractions. This will allow your children to focus on the important matters at hand without feeling rushed or pressured.

• Clarify Roles and Responsibilities

Clearly communicate who will be responsible for executing your wishes and managing your affairs if you are unable to do so. If your adult children will be filling these roles, tell them. Don’t assume that your oldest child will understand why you made your middle child the executor. Explain your decisions and choices so that when the time comes there won’t be any confusion or hurt feelings.  

• Educate Your Heirs on the Structure of Your Estate Plan

You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

• Address Potential Concerns and Questions

You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

Nobody likes to have these conversations, but they are important. We often talk at Confluence about helping our clients maximize their legacies, and typically children are the most important part of a legacy. We are here to help you facilitate meaningful conversations with the next generation that help you ensure your wealth impacts future generations positively. Don’t wait, the time to communicate is now.

Month in Review

• Stock and bond markets extended their rally in December, capping off a strong fourth quarter with broad-based gains. Value stocks and US small cap stocks led equity markets higher during the month.
• Major US bond markets finished in positive territory, preventing what would have been a record-breaking third consecutive calendar year loss.
• The continued decline in inflationary data and increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were key catalysts for markets during the month.

Narrow Market Leadership

The S&P 500 and growth stocks benefitted from continued strong results from technology companies during 2023. The outsized results of these companies pushed their valuations even higher, with Apple finishing the year as roughly 7% of the S&P 500’s value. This is the largest single weighting in the last 30-years and follows three previous years where Apple represented at least 6% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While Apple and six other companies were responsible for the lion’s share of the US stock market’s results in 2023, there are opportunities for broader participation as we head into 2024.

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 31, 2023.

In the past decade, estate tax conversations have been steadily decreasing. As the lifetime credit has climbed to unprecedented highs, many wealthy Americans have come to believe that they are safely out of Uncle Sam’s reach. However, recent history is just that, it’s recent. Historically, estate taxes have been a major factor for both middle class and high-net-worth Americans. Furthermore, estate taxes are often easy targets for adjustments when fiscal gaps need closing. This article explores why estate taxes should continue to be a priority in your wealth planning, and how you can be prepared for whatever the future may hold.

Don’t Assume Estate Taxes Won’t Be a Problem

The current estate tax lifetime exemption is $13.61MM per individual, or $27.22MM per couple. These numbers have become so high in recent years, that many high-net-worth Americans have come to believe that they no longer need to worry about estate taxes. My advice is to be careful, because congress can change the rules at any time. As recently as 2008, the exemption was only $2MM per individual, and it was even lower than that in the 1990s and early 2000s. Even under current law if nothing else changes, the $13.61MM exclusion will be cut in half on January 1^st of 2026. When tax shortfalls arise, estate taxes are often viewed as low hanging fruit for Washington. The current exclusion level is an aberration, not the historical norm.

Don’t Let Your Estate Documents Become Stale

The rule of thumb for most families is to have their estate plan documents reviewed every 5 years. However, if you are a high-net-worth individual with an estate tax issue, these reviews should be much more frequent. In fact, estate tax considerations should be a part of your financial plan to be reviewed and discussed at least annually and perhaps more if there is a significant change in the law. Vehicles such as irrevocable trusts and joint insurance policies can help mitigate the risk of owing estate taxes, and these vehicles and strategies should be a part of the normal cadence of planning.

Don’t Forget to Incorporate Charitable Giving into Your Estate Plan

Charitable giving is one of the many strategic ways to avoid estate taxes, especially if you’ve already set aside the amounts that you plan to leave to your children. Wealth that is left to charitable organizations is not subject to the 40% estate tax. This means that instead of giving $600K to your children and $400k to the government, you give $1MM to an organization you care about, or to a foundation or Donor Advised Fund that is run by your children. Most people would prefer that their heirs decide which causes receive those funds rather than a large chunk being sent to Washington.

Make Sure You Have the Right Team:

Your team of professionals should include not only an excellent wealth manager who can help you plan around these issues, but also an attorney and a CPA who are experts in their fields when it comes to estate taxes. These issues are complex, and they can change quickly. Make sure that you are working with professionals who have the knowledge and the bandwidth to give these issues the attention they deserve.

In Summary

Estate planning is a dynamic field that requires regular attention, especially for those with significant wealth. High-net-worth individuals should not only reassess their estate plans frequently but should also consider incorporating charitable giving as part of their strategy. Be sure your planning team includes knowledgeable wealth managers, attorneys, and CPAs as this is crucial as you navigate the ever-changing landscape of estate taxes. Complacency can be costly – proactive estate planning should remain a critical element of your financial health.

If we can be of help to you and your family, please give us a call!

About the Author

The opportunity to make a positive difference in people’s lives is why Randy chose a career in wealth management. He is passionate about helping his clients achieve their goals and cut through the…

Grove City, Pittsburgh

randall.holcombe@confluencefp.com

Email Randy

Confluence Financial Partners and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.

Month in Review

• It was a choppy month for stock and bond markets as volatility rose towards the end of January. US large caps squeezed out a positive return, while US small caps and international equities trailed.
• Investors pushed expectations of interest rate cuts out, helping to increase interest rates, which weighed on major bond markets during the month.
• Economic data remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve largely took a March rate cut off the table in late January.

Equity Markets Following Bear Market Recoveries

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on January 25^th, illustrating the progress the equity market has made following the most recent bear market. Along with making new all-time highs comes an influx of short-term noise, making it important to review the history of market returns following bear market recoveries. Looking at all 14 cases since 1957, the S&P 500 rose an average of 23% over the 18 month period following the 20% recovery from a bear market low. In present day, the S&P 500 had a bear market low on October 12, 2022, and recovered 20% roughly 9 months later in June 2023. Ignoring short-termism around all-time highs, history suggests the equity markets continue to rise after recovering from a bear market.   

Source: Yahoo! Finance as of 1/30/2024; BMO Capital Markets via Brian Belski.

What’s on Deck for February?

• Earnings season will wrap up, after companies posted largely mixed results in January. 
• Banks are back in focus following the surprise weakness in some regional bank earnings. Given the events of March/April 2023, investors have heightened sensitivity to any perceived weakness in the banking channel.
• The Federal Reserve does not have a (FOMC) meeting in February, so investors will look for additional information from Fed officials following the January meeting. The Federal Reserve surprised investors by taking a March rate cut off the table, suggesting it would happen later in 2024 depending on economic data.

Our 401(k) Standard of Care service structure centers on four key pillars: 

1. Personalized Employer Review Meetings:  “One size fits all” does not work when it comes to 401(k) plans. Through regularly scheduled meetings, we collaborate with employers to monitor the employer plan to make sure it continues to fit the company’s needs and goals.  

During these meetings we will discuss the following topics: 

• Plan investment analysis: considering the quantitative and qualitative results to ensure we have skillful managers in place. 

• Courageous plan design: striving to increase an employer’s benefits return on investment while striving to enhance participant retirement outcomes.  

• Fee benchmarking: every 3 years we lead an RFP driven process to ensure apple-to-apple comparisons and to help maximize a plan’s negotiating leverage. 

• Fiduciary guidance: to support the employer and mitigate potential liabilities. 

2. Employee engagement:  Our education team uses highly customized plan participant content structured to help optimize outcomes and increase financial wellness. We deliver multiple types of meetings throughout the year. These meetings run the spectrum from group education to 1on1 individual consultations, and life stage education designed to meet the employee at their individual career stage.  

3. Regular investment monitoring & investment analysis:  As a member of the Retirement Plan Advisor Group (RPAG), we have access to their proprietary fund ranking system that aims to enhance outcomes, manage risks, and reduce fiduciary exposure. Employers receive quarterly plan “report cards” detailing investments scores.  In addition to the fund scores, Confluence has an internal Investment Advisor Committee that provides guidance on selected investment managers and incorporates a qualitative layer of oversight to the fund analysis programs used.  

4. Ongoing communication & support: In addition to the processes outlined above, we deliver a variety of additional touchpoints designed to keep employers and participants informed and engaged. This includes informative webinars, quarterly newsletters, and campaigns to address specific plan demographics or concerns.

By utilizing these services, employers can have the confidence in knowing their 401(k) is managed effectively while employees have the opportunity to understand their benefits options.  

Our team is here to guide you every step of the way. Should you have any questions or require further information on how our service delivery model can benefit your organization, please do not hesitate to contact us or listen to our podcasts today! 

Month in Review

• Rally continued for stocks in February, with the key development of broader participation- for example, US small cap stocks had a strong month.
• String of inflation data and commentary from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher during February.
• The inflation report released during the month (January CPI) showed prices rising more than expected, driven by higher housing related costs.

Attention to Interest Rates

Investors are curious as to when the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates. During February, investors recalibrated expectations once again for the start of rate cuts, believing that the first reduction will be pushed back to June 2024. This change makes sense for various reasons: inflation continues to remain somewhat firm, and the labor market remains very strong.

Historically, forecasting the path of interest rates has been notoriously difficult to do and ultimately, introduces unwarranted noise into investors’ outlooks. The chart below shows how even the Federal Reserve struggles to predict its own interest rate decisions.

To do so effectively, we need to do 3 things:

1. Reflect.
   1. To lay the foundation for an exceptional 2024, it’s important to get yourself in a positive state. The state you’re in matters! If you don’t take the time to reflect, you will likely come up short. Take a moment to flip through your phone’s photo album, review your calendar, and take inventory of what all you accomplished in 2023. Putting yourself in a positive state will help you dream and plan for the year ahead with excitement.
2. Plan.
   1. What does an awesome 2024 look like for you? The more specific, the better! A good way to do this is to think about each quarter and what 3 or 5 things you want to accomplish. Dig into the ‘why’ behind these goals; make it emotional and powerful. The significance of your ‘why’ will inherently help you find the ‘how.’
3. Measure and stay focused.
   1. To turn your dreams into accomplishments, it’s crucial to establish specific metrics and maintain your focus. In the hustle and bustle of life, staying focused on your ‘why’ can be challenging. Regularly revisit your goals, assess your progress, and adjust course if needed.

By implementing the Reflect, Plan, Measure framework, we will become active participants in the creation of a year filled with intention and excitement.

Great Days Ahead!