Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • Redefining Your Retirement

    Redefining Your Retirement

    Today’s retirees are choosing from a variety of retirement styles. What’s yours?

    Although an estimated 10,000 baby boomers reach retirement age every day, how each chooses to spend their free time can be quite different. Today’s retirees wish to forge new identities and seek new experiences, while redefining how they spend their time and money.

    See if one or more of these new retiree profiles resonates with you. Deciding how you’ll stay busy can go a long way toward helping you plan and save for your dream retirement.

    The Giver

    Givers contribute time, talent and, yes, even money to support causes close to their hearts. While the typical American spends 20 minutes a day engaged in volunteer, civic or religious activities, the Giver over age 65 dedicates a half hour or more, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    One retiree may use her musical talents to play the violin for hospital patients, while another works behind the scenes updating a nonprofit’s website. Either way, it’s all about making a meaningful difference.

    Note: Givers may become too altruistic, spending more time and money than planned, undermining health or financial stability.

    Givers represent 33% of working retirees.

    The Thinker

    Thinkers have a deep desire for lifelong learning. They may retire in a college town, take classes, read for pleasure and engage in contemplative activities.

    Many colleges and universities are designing courses aimed at this new senior class. Campuses can be found in areas with affordable housing, quality education, teaching opportunities, walking and biking trails, and excellent transportation, healthcare and entertainment options.

    Note: If you’ve established a 529 plan for a child or grandchild, you may be able to use unneeded funds for your own continuing education. Ask your financial advisor about potentially withdrawing funds without penalties.

    Cognitively active people are 2.6 times less likely to develop dementia or Alzheimer’s.

    The Entrepreneur

    Entrepreneurs typically start a business that’s different from a past career, bringing decades of experience, success, passion and emotional intelligence to their new ventures.

    Goals include a fulfilling career, increased flexibility and enjoyment in their work. Some hope their new endeavors will becomes self-sustaining, while allowing for work/life balance.

    Note: A small business entails a business plan, startup costs, insurance and a financial plan. Work with a professional tax planner and financial advisor to build a successful venture.

    Nearly 3 out of 5 working retirees consider a different line of work.

    The Explorer

    The Explorer dedicates up to a quarter of their financial resources on travel. These globetrotters invest in experiences and indulge their wanderlust while they have the health, energy and resources.

    Good saving habits help Explorers immerse themselves among other cultures, foods and languages.

    Note: Plan for ongoing travel expenses, desired location, frequency and duration, as well as inflation and foreign exchange rates. Health-related issues may become a limitation in later years.

    There are just as many Explorers over age 75 as there are among younger groups.

    The Part-Timer

    The Part-Timer, like the Entrepreneur, seeks a career change, but may not wish to commit to a full-time position. Some favor mini-retirements – periods of work followed by intermissions for relaxation. Think consulting and contracting, for example.

    Note: Returning to work, even part time, can incur expenses such as new work attire, transportation and dining out. Evaluate the impact of additional income on your current tax bracket, Social Security benefits, healthcare coverage, and potential contributions to retirement plans.

    There are more than 7.1 million Part-Timers age 55 or older.

    The Foodie

    Foodies prefer quality dining and enjoying the experience of the meal. They typically spend about an hour and 20 minutes when dining, relishing how food and drink increases their quality of life. They enjoy experimenting with new creations, introducing new flavors or bringing friends and family together.

    Since the Foodie spends time shopping for and preparing meals, other expenses are typically lower.

    Note: Food connoisseurs need to factor in healthcare costs and inflation, as well as utilities and transportation.

    Foodies spend, on average, 28% of their income on food and beverage.

    The Athlete

    The Athlete may compete in triathlons or play tennis into their 80s and beyond. They stay in top form and enjoy training and competition.

    As the Athlete eventually slows down, or faces sudden illness or injury, healthcare costs can account for a significant share of retirement income, including Medicare expenses, prescriptions or long-term care needs.

    Note: It’s important to budget for proper equipment and training. Select an appropriate Medicare or healthcare policy and account for expenses that aren’t covered. Be sure to factor in inflation and long-term care or assisted living.

    Approximately a third of Americans over 65 are considered physically active.

    Next Steps

    • Decide what type or types of retirement styles you’d like to pursue
    • Further explore the necessary steps to achieving your goals
    • Talk to your financial advisor about the best strategy for turning your retirement dream into reality

    Sources: Journal of Financial Planning: “How retirees spend their time”; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Robert S. Wilson, Ph.D., Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center; Work in Retirement: Myths and Motivation; J.P. Morgan “Cost of Waiting” study; President’s Council on Fitness, Sports & Nutrition

    Earnings in 529 plans are not subject to federal tax, and in most cases, state tax, so long as you use withdrawals for eligible education expenses, such as tuition and room and board. However, if you withdraw money from a 529 plan and do not use it on an eligible education expense, you generally will be subject to income tax and an additional 10% federal tax penalty on earnings. Investors should consider before investing, whether the investor’s or the designated beneficiary’s home state offers state tax or other benefits only available for investments in such state’s 529 savings plan. Such benefits include financial aid, scholarship funds, and protection from creditors. 529 plans offered outside their resident state may not provide the same tax benefits as those offered within their state.

    RETIREMENT AND LONGEVITY

    August 15, 2018

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    Chuck Zuzak

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  • 2 Things Every Investor Should Know About SECURE Act 2.0

    In late December, a $1.7T omnibus spending package was passed in Congress and subsequently signed into law by President Biden. This bill included some significant updates to the landmark 2019 SECURE Act, such that this portion of the legislation is being referred to as SECURE Act 2.0.

    While there are many important updates in the law, I’d like to focus on two items that we believe are especially significant

    1. Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Age Increase

    Beginning 1/1/2023, the new beginning age for RMDs will be 73. By 2033, the age for RMDs will be pushed back further to 75.

    This means that investors who will turn 72 in 2023 received a pass on what would have been their first RMD! It also means that the window of opportunity for income planning in retirement is extended.

    Some of the most opportune years in terms of income planning are the years between retirement and when RMDs begin. In these years, individuals tend to be in a relatively low tax bracket, because they no longer have high employment income and they also don’t yet have required income coming from their retirement accounts.

    If these retirees are able to live on Social Security and income from taxable brokerage accounts, they could end up in an unusually low tax bracket. These years can then be used to “harvest” capital gains at a 0% tax rate, or convert portions of a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. The lower adjusted gross income can also help retirees save on things like Medicare and Social Security taxes.  

    Pushing the RMD age out to 73 and then 75 will give retirees additional time to take advantage of these opportunities.

    2. 529 accounts to Roth IRAs

    For the first time, 529s will be allowed to rollover tax-free to Roth IRAs, albeit with significant restrictions.

    The total amount allowed to be rolled over in aggregate is $35,000, and the rollovers must be done in accordance with the annual Roth contribution limits (currently $6,500 for those under age 50). In addition, the 529 must have been established for at least 15 years.

    This change will help to alleviate investor fears of what may happen to 529 funds if the beneficiary chooses not to pursue higher education.

    The change also allows for a strategy whereby investors begin planned rollovers to a Roth IRA once the beneficiary turns 16. At today’s limits (which will be adjusted up for inflation), a 529 beneficiary could have $35,000 plus earnings saved in a Roth IRA before graduating from college. That is a solid head start!

    If you have questions about how these opportunities could affect your financial planning, please call one of our offices to speak with a wealth manager today.

    See below for additional key provisions in SECURE Act 2.0:

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

    Pittsburgh

    412-391-0377
    chuck.zuzak@confluencefp.com
    Email Chuck Zuzak

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    Chuck Zuzak

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  • Market Update – May 2022

    Though the market changes, our commitment to clients does not. Our Chief Executive Officer, Greg Weimer, and Director of Investments, Bill Winkeler, give you an update on the current market and share insights on how to navigate these times.

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    William Winkeler

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  • Inflation’s Return: Impact on the Global Economy & Your Investments

    After a long hiatus, inflation has made quite a comeback in everyday lives of consumers around the world. Generally defined as the increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy, inflation had been below historical averages most of the past decade, with the backdrop of a longer-term decline since peaking in the early 1980’s. The COVID-19 pandemic was the catalyst for a revival, initially due to constraints on supply chains and global trade. However, as economies globally recovered from the pandemic, inflation readings continued to show signs of growth.

    The phenomenon was initially described as “transitory” by economists and investors, believing that inflation would slow as supply chains and global trade healed. This assumption proved to be incorrect, with the “transitory” description has been dropped since mid-2021, as all major measures of inflation have continued to increase at a consistent and rapid pace. The most commonly referenced inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is tracked including food and energy prices (headline CPI) and excluding food and energy prices (core CPI). The reading through February showed that compared to one-year ago, headline CPI rose +7.9% and core CPI rose +6.4%, the highest level in almost 40-year for both readings. Importantly, this reading does not account for the subsequent increase in energy and other commodities after the escalation in Ukraine.

    Core CPI through February 2022; 1970 to 2022

    Inflation is an impactful force to the global economy and therefore financial markets; the sharp increase certainly has the attention of policymakers. In the United States, the Federal Reserve operates under a “dual mandate” of “price stability and maximum sustainable employment”, with the former goal referencing inflation. Due to the improvement in the labor market, and consistently high inflation readings, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates starting in the March meeting.  The first increase will mark the start of tighter monetary policy, which will influence equity and bond markets in the short-term. The additional unknown duration of the supply disruptions in the oil and gas market will also muddy the waters for policymakers over the coming months.

    The long, secular decline in inflation readings is over in the short-term. With inflation readings already near 40-year highs prior to the conflict in Ukraine, the response by policymakers over the coming months will be widely followed by investors. As we transition to a rate hiking cycle and inflation stays firm, the environment will likely require investors to shift their approach. Looking back historically over periods of rising inflation, asset classes such as commodities, real estate, value equities, US small cap equities and international equities tended to do well. Within equities, dividend paying stocks may offer an attractive opportunity for investors seeking growth with income in an inflationary environment. One additional portfolio consideration for investors: inflationary periods have had implications for the relationship between stock and bond returns, with high and rising inflation historically reducing the diversification benefit from bonds (positive correlation between stocks and bonds). While the approach may be different than the past 20 years for investors, there are likely to be opportunities for long-term investors to take advantage of as we navigate the ever-changing investment environment.

    Views and opinions expressed are current as of the date of this white paper and may be subject to change; they are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Prior to making any investment decision, you should consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Although certain information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete.

    Forecasts, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with such forward-looking statements, it is important to note that actual events or results may differ materially from those contemplated.

    Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. d/b/a Confluence Financial Partners is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. Please refer to our Form ADV Part 2A and Form CRS for further information regarding our investment services and their corresponding risks.

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    Pittsburgh

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • Confluence Commentary

    Advice for Young Professionals – Top 10 Financial Wellness Tips for Young Professionals & Upcoming Graduates

    By: Zac Saunders, Wealth Manager 

    1. As you consider your career and job opportunities – think about total compensation, not just salary!
    • Assess the total compensation package (healthcare, 401k match, etc.) when reviewing job offers
    1. Create and maintain a monthly budget.
    • Setting up a budget is of utmost importance.
    • Keep track of your spending and keep expenses down (Needs vs. Wants).
    1. Start to build up your emergency savings.
    • A good rule of thumb is to keep 4-6 months of living expenses in savings.
    1. If available, start contributing to your work 401k plan and take advantage of the company match benefit.
    • You should consider contributing at least the amount to obtain the maximum company contribution. This is free money!  For 2020, the maximum contribution that an employee can make to their 401k plan is $19,500.
    1. Start an individual retirement account (Roth and Traditional IRAs).
    • You can contribute to a Roth or Traditional IRA (depending on income limits) while also contributing to a work 401k.
    • The total amount that a person can contribute to all traditional and Roth IRAs combined is $6,000 for 2020.
    1. Pay down any debts and if you have student loans consider consolidating.
    • Be disciplined and start paying your loan off as soon as you can.
    1. Pay off credit cards on a monthly basis. A credit card can help you build credit provided you pay off in a timely manner.
    • Don’t spend what you don’t have.
    1. Start saving for your first home. We recommend saving 20% for a down payment.
    • Avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI)!
    1. It’s ok to buy a car, but don’t fall for the low monthly payment options that are spread out over 48 + months.
    • Don’t live beyond your means.
    1. Save and Invest Early. Time and compound interest should be your best friend!
    • Case study A: Contributing $500 per month to your portfolio from age 32 to 65, growing at 9% average annual return, adds up to approximately, $1.1 million…not bad!
    • Case study B: Contributing $500 per month to your portfolio from age 22 to 65, growing at 9% average annual return, adds up to approximately, $2.6 million…even better! Key takeaway: START EARLY!
    Any opinions are those of Zac Saunders and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.  The case study examples are for illustrative purposes only.  Actual investor results will vary.
    Zac Saunders
    About the Author

    Known for his professionalism and calming demeanor, Zac is focused on helping his clients reach their financial goals through comprehensive financial planning and unbiased guidance.  Zac and his team support and care for the overall financial well-being of their clients.

    Sewickley

    724-719-6600
    zac.saunders@confluencefp.com
    Email Zac

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    Zac Saunders

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  • CARES Act Explained: What You Need to Know

    From rebate checks to small business support, there is quite a bit packed into the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act that was signed into law on Friday. The $2+ trillion emergency fiscal stimulus package is intended to mitigate some of the economic effects caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

    We have all been working to gain an understanding of the law so that we can act as a resource for our friends and family looking to take advantage of the applicable provisions. We have been reading numerous articles, participating in webcasts hosted by industry experts and large accounting firms, and talking with banks to understand the process for various provisions. New information is still coming out daily, but please do not hesitate to use us as a resource as we work through this pandemic.

    Here is a look at some of the key provisions in the CARES Act that may be of interest to you:

    1. A check – Based on income and family makeup, most Americans can expect to receive $1,200 individually ($2,400 for joint filers) and $500 per dependent. Amounts phase out for those who reported adjusted gross incomes over $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for joint filers in 2018 or
    2. A buffer – The CARES Act eliminates the 10% early withdrawal penalty for coronavirus-related distributions from retirement accounts. Withdrawn amounts can be repaid to the plan over the next three years. In addition, required minimum distributions (RMDs) are waived for 2020. Investors who have already taken an RMD for 2020 have options that may include returning the amount or rolling it over, as long as the distribution was not made from a beneficiary
    3. Support for small businesses – In the form of more than $350 billion, including forgivable loans (up to $10 million) to help keep the business afloat, a paycheck protection plan and
    4. Expanded unemployment benefits – Unlimited funding to provide workers laid off due to COVID-19 an additional $600 a week, in addition to state benefits for up to four months. This includes relief for self-employed individuals, furloughed employees and gig economy workers who have lost work during the
    5. Fortified healthcare – $100 billion is allocated to hospitals and other health providers to help offset costs and provide relief. In addition, the legislation provides funding for numerous other areas including state and local COVID-19 response measures, an increase to the national stockpile for medicine, protective equipment, medical supplies and additional FEMA disaster relief
    6. Enhanced education – $30 billion to bolster state education and school funding, as well as the deferral of federal student loan payments through the end of September.

    What’s next? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has targeted early April to deliver the funds. Discussions are starting in D.C. around a possible next phase of economic relief, although it’s just talk for now.

    We’ll continue to keep you updated with relevant and timely information. In the meantime, please don’t hesitate to reach out. These are difficult times in which we are living, but we are confident that we will get through them together.

    The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Confluence Financial Partners is not a registered broker/dealer, and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Investment Advisory Services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Some expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of Raymond James and are subject to change. There is no assurance that any of the forecasts mentioned will occur. Economic and market conditions are subject to change.  Some of the material was prepared by Raymond James for use by its advisors.

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    Chuck Zuzak

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  • How to Nurture Moneywise Children

    Teach your children to treasure their financial legacy.

    Most parents appreciate the importance of traditional education in their child’s development considering the obvious intellectual and social benefits. Yet all too many forget that a financial education is also crucial for ensuring their offspring’s long-term well-being.The good news is it’s never too early or too late to begin sharing your financial wisdom and experiences with your family. By taking the time to teach your children the value of money, you’ll have the comfort of knowing they’ll understand how to care for their own financial legacy when the time comes.

    An Essential Skill

    Like reading, financial literacy is an essential skill, but unfortunately, it’s not typically taught in school. Rather, it’s up to parents to pass on their financial knowledge to ensure the next generation is capable of taking care of the wealth they’ve built.

    Pre-kindergarten age is a great time to introduce the basics, including the idea that you must work to earn money in order to pay for items and services, as well as the value of different coins and bills. As they get a little older, your child can start doing chores and earning an allowance. Help them go through the motions of saving up for something they’d like to buy and deciding whether or not it’s a worthwhile purchase.

    With pre-teens and teenagers, there are several other steps you can take, such as helping them open a savings account with their earnings from chores, babysitting or other jobs. Share your own tips on managing a budget and introduce them to the concept of investing and saving for retirement. Simply being transparent with your children about the realities and costs of living can go a long way in preparing them for the future.

    Sharing Your Financial Legacy

    While products such as trusts and wills can help ensure your wishes are carried out, they can’t give your heirs the true understanding of how to save, grow and spend money wisely. In fact, if your children are going to receive a sizable inheritance, they may get overwhelmed by sudden wealth without a solid foundation to rely on. It’s also a good idea to introduce your children, when they’re ready, to your financial advisor and other professional partners, so they’ll know where to find expert guidance when dealing with money issues.

    Next Steps

    • Write out a sample budget with your children, explaining the expenses you have each month, such as utilities and groceries
    • Help them open a savings or checking account
    • Schedule a time for them to join you for a meeting with your financial advisor

    Family and Life Events

    August 14, 2019

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    Katie Montagazzi

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  • Stock Market Recap: February 2024

    Month in Review

    • Rally continued for stocks in February, with the key development of broader participation- for example, US small cap stocks had a strong month.
    • String of inflation data and commentary from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher during February.
    • The inflation report released during the month (January CPI) showed prices rising more than expected, driven by higher housing related costs.

    Attention to Interest Rates

    Investors are curious as to when the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates. During February, investors recalibrated expectations once again for the start of rate cuts, believing that the first reduction will be pushed back to June 2024. This change makes sense for various reasons: inflation continues to remain somewhat firm, and the labor market remains very strong.

    Historically, forecasting the path of interest rates has been notoriously difficult to do and ultimately, introduces unwarranted noise into investors’ outlooks. The chart below shows how even the Federal Reserve struggles to predict its own interest rate decisions.

    Source: Capital Group, Bloomberg. As of February 23, 2024. Federal funds rate data from January 2016 to February 2024. Forward looking dot plot projections are reported quarterly from September 2016 through December 2023.

    What’s on Deck for March?

    • Inflation data will be in focus as investors watch for any signs of continued increases of prices. The February CPI report is released on March 12th and expected to show declining inflation.
    • The Federal Reserve’s March meeting (FOMC) will be closely watched for commentary around the outlook for growth and inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already indicated a March rate hike is off the table.
    • As of February 29th, 97% of the S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, with the remainder wrapping up in March. With 97% of companies reporting, year-over-year earnings growth came in at +4%. 
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    Pittsburgh

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill
    Feb 2024 Market RecapDownload

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    William Winkeler

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  • Should Millennials Plan on Social Security?

    Social Security, started in the 1930s as a part of FDR’s New Deal, has been under fire since I can remember. All the while, the program has been helping fund the retirement of some 47 million Americans, with another 19 million on survivor or disability benefits. What started out as a way to ensure elderly Americans had some form of income has turned into a major piece of the US economy.

    As we help our younger clients plan for retirement, we often hear, “Let’s not plan on Social Security, I don’t think it will be there by the time I retire.” While we understand where this attitude is coming from, we don’t think it reflects reality.

    Here’s why:

    • Social Security is funded by a separate payroll tax (FICA) that comes out of paychecks up until an individual reaches $160,200 in earned income (2023). That means, that for the first $160,200 each earner makes, 6.2% goes to Social Security, with another 6.2% coming from the employer.
    • That’s a total of $19,864 that goes to Social Security for someone who earns $160,200.
    • These amounts are then paid out directly to retirees, survivors, and disabled individuals.

    As long as there are people working in the United States, there will be money going into, and then out of Social Security.

    “But what about the trust fund?”

    • As discussed above, Social Security is funded directly from payroll taxes. Up until very recently, the ratio of working to non-working Americans had been high enough that Social Security benefits were fully funded each year.
    • However, as Baby Boomers retire and birthrates continue to decline, this is changing. If payroll taxes are not enough to current obligations, the difference is paid by the asset reserves in the Social Security trust fund. As more and more workers retire, the trust fund is expected to be depleted.

    By the most recent estimates, the trust fund assets will be spent down by 2034. At that point, Social Security would officially be insolvent.

    “That’s what I mean! Once Social Security is insolvent, I won’t get any benefits!”

    But what does insolvency actually mean?

    • Assuming no legislation is passed to shore up the program, all benefits will be cut to about 79% of what they are today.
    • 79% is not 0%. Far from it, in fact, 79% is still solid amount of guaranteed income that the younger generation can plan on as a piece of their overall retirement picture.

    “That’s it? That doesn’t sound as bad as what I’ve read in the news.”

    No, it doesn’t. For younger workers who have plenty of time to factor such a possibility in their long-term planning, the potential reduction would not be life changing. A relatively modest increase to retirement savings would make up for the potential shortfall.

    In reality, Congress will be forced to act, there will likely be changes to Social Security at some point. These changes will probably make sure that current benefits are not cut, and that Americans with no time to adjust will not have the rug pulled out from under them. For younger Americans, the fact remains that as long as we have workers and payroll taxes, Social Security will be there in one way or another.

    Disclaimer: This analysis could certainly change pending action by Congress. We are in no way trying to predict the future, but we believe this analysis is reasonable based on the current landscape.

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

    Pittsburgh

    412-391-0377
    chuck.zuzak@confluencefp.com
    Email Chuck Zuzak

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    Chuck Zuzak

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  • Stock Market Recap: March 2024

    Month in Review

    • Stock and bond markets rallied during March, with broadening of results- large cap value stocks (+5.0%, Russell 1000 Value TR Index), small cap stocks (+3.6%, Russell 2000 TR Index), and international stocks (+3.3%, MSCI ACWI Ex-USA NR Index) finished the month ahead of large cap growth stocks (+1.8%, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index).
    • Economic data continues to look strong in the United States. The Federal Reserve also confirmed their forecast of three 0.25% interest rate cuts in 2024.

    Time to Look Beyond Cash?

    Last month we discussed the difficulty in forecasting changes in interest rates. During March, investors spent the month aligning their outlook with the Federal Reserve’s guidance, which remains some level of interest rate cuts sometime later this year. While the exact timing cannot be known, we do know that historically there have been opportunities to shift out of cash investments near peak interest rates.

    Going back to the six previous cycles since 1984, investors have been better off investing in bonds, US stocks or a balanced portfolio compared to staying in cash during the 12-months following the peak level of interest rates. Forecasting the exact time of peak interest rates/rate cuts is fruitless, but for long-term investors there is an opportunity to look beyond cash.

    Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Robert Shiller, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The 60/40 portfolio is 60% invested in S&P 500 Total Return Index and 40% invested in Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index. The S&P 500 total return figure from the 1984 period was calculated using data from Robert Shiller. The analysis references the month in which the month-end 6-month CD rate peaked during previous rate hiking cycles. CD rate data prior to 2013 are sourced from the Federal Reserve, whereas data from 2013 to 2023 are sourced from Bloomberg. CD subsequent 12-month return calculation assumes reinvestment at the prevailing 6-month rate when the initial CD matures.

    What’s on Deck for April?

    • The Federal Reserve meets at the end of April, they are expected to hold interest rates constant. Investors will look for updates around the timing of interest rate cuts and balance sheet changes during the presentation. 
    • The inflation report and jobs report for March will be watched by investors for signs of continued progress on the inflation front, and for any weakening in the jobs market.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    Pittsburgh

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill
    March-2024-Market-RecapDownload

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    William Winkeler

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