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Stock Market Recap: July 2024


  • Major reversals across the equity market, with small cap stocks and value stocks outpacing the large-cap and growth peers sharply in July.
  • Catalyzed by decelerating inflation data, small cap stocks (Russell 2000 TR Index, +10.16%) finished significantly ahead of large cap stocks (S&P 500 TR Index, +1.22% and large cap growth stocks (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, -1.70%).
  • Additionally, the S&P 500 had its first daily drop greater than 2% in July, the first time in over 350 trading days. This was the longest such streak of low daily volatility in over 15 years.

Last month’s monthly update discussed the record levels of concentration in the S&P 500 – a factor that likely played a role in the significant shift equity markets saw in July.

After the June inflation (CPI) report was released, investors shifted expectations to a much higher likelihood of a rate cut in September. Generally, small cap stocks have a greater sensitivity to interest rates, given the use of more floating rate debt compared to large cap stocks. This factor, combined with improving earnings fundamentals, resulted in the Russell 2000 outperforming the NASDAQ by over 5% the day of the inflation report. This represents the largest single day outperformance of small cap stocks versus technology stocks in over 40-years (chart below)

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of July 21, 2024

Small caps kept up the momentum of July, along with large cap value stocks (Russell 1000 Value TR Index, +5.11%).

July represented an important reminder to long-term investors about the benefits of maintaining a diversified approach

  • Earnings season wraps up in August: as of 7/29/2024, 40% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, and 76% are beating expectations for the second quarter.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to use August to signal its intentions around cutting interest rates during its September meeting. The Federal Reserve last hiked in July 2023 and has held rates constant since.
William Winkeler
About the Author

Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the…

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Disability Insurance Planning for Physicians: Key Facts & Considerations


Nearly 1 in 5 people living in the United States will suffer a disability lasting more than one year before the age of 65.1


Imagine not being able to practice your specialized medical skills due to illness or injury. The financial impact could be devastating for you and your family. As a physician, your income hinges on your ability to work. That’s why individual disability insurance as part of your financial plan is crucial for safeguarding your earning potential.

Choosing disability insurance involves understanding the different types and the benefits each brings. For example, there are two categories of disability policies, short-term disability and long-term disability. Short-term disability policies are typically obtained as a group policy benefit from one’s employer while long-term disability policies are also offered as a benefit through an employer BUT are more commonly purchased as an individual policy through a broker or financial advisor.

Additionally, you can purchase own-occupation coverage or any-occupation coverage. The difference between the two is meaningful. Under an own-occupation policy, a person is typically considered disabled if they are unable to perform the material and substantial duties of the job they were working at the time they became disabled. Under an any-occupation policy, a person is considered disabled if they are not able to perform substantial duties of any job for which the person may earn a certain percentage of their pre-disability earnings.  

For physicians, it is essential to work with an advisor who understands your needs and unique situation to recommend the right disability insurance strategy.

Beyond basic understanding of disability insurance, it’s important to understand key factors like the carrier, benefit amount, elimination period, and renewal options.

  • Insurance Carrier – know who you are working with. Currently, only 5 carriers offer “true” own-occupation coverage.
  • Benefit Amount – the IRS publishesd “Issue & Participation” amounts based on your income and existing disability coverage.
  • Waiting Period – the amount of time one must wait to collect benefits when disabled – typically 90, 180, 365, or 730 days.
  • Benefit Period – how long one will be eligible to receive their tax-free benefit. This is typically to age 65, 67, 70, or lifetime.

The above list is not all encompassing but should be considered as you construct your insurance package.

At Confluence Financial Partners, we work with physicians to secure and protect their income in the event an unexpected illness or injury becomes reality. Please reach out if you would like to start the conversation today.

Life and disability insurance and life insurance with long-term care benefits are not issued through Confluence Insurance Services. Products and services referenced are offered and sold only by appropriately appointed and licensed entities and financial advisors and professionals. Not all products and services are available in all states. 

  1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Disability and Health Data System (DHDS) [Internet]. [updated 2023 May; cited 2023 May 15]. Available from: http://dhds.cdc.gov
      ↩︎
Rob Linkowski
About the Author

Rob Linkowski brings more than 30 years of experience in designing and providing quality life and disability insurance programs to his clientele of medical professionals, business owners, family and friends. Rob is passionate…

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Stock Market Recap: September 2024


  • Stock and bond markets continued to rally in September, following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.
  • Gains expanded beyond market leaders, such as large cap growth and technology stocks, with broader participation within the S&P 500, large cap value, small cap stocks, and international stocks.
  • The S&P 500 Index total return of +22.08% year-to-date as of September 30th represents its best start to a year since 1997, and the best start to a Presidential election year in its history.

The Federal Reserve reduced the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% as expected in September, ending the rate hiking cycle that began in March 2022 and featured over 5% worth of interest rate increases. 

The market’s outlook largely shifted in early July, when the June inflation report affirmed the outlook for declining inflation, clearing the way for the September rate cut. Since that period, stock and bond market leadership has shifted as the economic and fundamental outlook has changed.

Since June 30th (after the inflation report and rate cut), market leadership has broadened beyond the Magnificent 7 stocks. The Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Index rose +9.60%, ahead of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 TR Index (+5.89%). Within large cap stocks, large cap value gained +9.43%, ahead of large cap growth’s +3.19% gain. Small cap stocks also participated in broadening, with the Russell 2000 TR Index rising +9.27% during the third quarter. Lastly, core bonds (Barclays US Agg Bond TR Index) rose +5.20%, pulling ahead of money market funds in 2024 as short-term rates begin to decline. The changing environment highlights how dynamic financial markets can be and serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining a diversified approach to investing.

Sources: Morningstar, June 30th to September 30th . Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, Large Cap Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index, Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, S&P 500 = S&P 500 TR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, Large Cap Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index.

  • Labor market data will be watched closely as investors look for information ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meetings in November and December.  
William Winkeler
About the Author

Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the…

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Your Financial Guide for a Career Transition


Navigating a job change is a significant undertaking, especially for those with considerable assets and financial interests. This guide is designed for professionals, including executives, physicians, and business owners as they work through the intricacies of transitioning to new opportunities.

Here are some important things to consider:

  • Review your compensation plan.

Understanding your compensation package is important, because compensation is usually a huge part of transition decision. Beyond salary, bonuses, and deferred compensation, it’s essential to assess the long-term value of your total package. For example, if you are re-locating, consider the impact of cost-of-living adjustments.

Don’t forget to evaluate non-monetary benefits such as professional development opportunities, wellness opportunities, and overall company culture. All of these can have a significant impact on your job satisfaction and overall well-being.

  • Evaluate your retirement plan.

What do I do with my old retirement plan(s)?

Roll into an IRA: Working with a financial advisor can help you determine if rolling into an Individual Retirement Account makes sense. The benefits of this option include having more investment flexibility and control. Typically, you will have a broader range of investment options compared to an employer sponsored 401(k) plan. This allows you to diversify your portfolio while also consolidating accounts if you have multiple 401(k)s with previous employers. If you work with an advisor, you will have professional investment management as well as financial planning available. A good financial advisor will also be able to help with tax and estate planning matters, though he/she cannot replace your CPA or attorney.

or

Move your old retirement plan to your new employer: Most employer sponsored retirement plans allow for assets from previous retirement plans to flow into the new plan. This is certainly better than leaving the assets with your old employer’s plan, but this option likely does not include the investment options and flexibility as well as professional management and planning found if you roll assets into a managed IRA. That said, it may be your lowest cost option.

  • Understand changes to your health insurance.

Be aware if there is a waiting period for health insurance with your new employer. If that is the case, look into extending your previous employer’s coverage through COBRA if there is a gap.

Have a solid understanding of the different health insurance plans offered by your employer and consider factors such as the network of providers, deductibles, co-pays, coverage for prescription drugs and preventative care to name a few.

Take advantage of  tax-advantaged accounts like Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA)s and Health Savings Accounts (HSA)s if your employer offers them.  These accounts can help you save money on qualified medical expenses. Additionally, HSAs can serve as an additional retirement savings vehicle.

  • Review Stock Options and Equity Compensation Programs.

If your previous employer offered stock options or equity, be sure to understand the vesting schedules and the implications of leaving.

Equity compensation can significantly increase your wealth, but also add complexity to your financial and tax planning picture. For example, the decision to exercise stock options should be timed to optimize tax implications and align with your broader financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Working with a financial advisor can help you make an informed financial decision.

Melissa Pirosko
About the Author

Melissa’s love of investing combined with her desire to help and serve others led her to a career in wealth management. Melissa enjoys working with clients to help them reach their financial goals…

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ISOs vs. RSUs: Strategies to Optimize Your Employee Stock Benefits


Employers are increasingly offering stock benefits as part of their compensation packages to remain competitive in the job market. These benefits often come in the form of Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Restrictive Stock Units (RSUs) which can be powerful tools for building wealth if managed effectively. However, understanding the differences in these benefits is crucial to maximizing their potential and avoiding costly mistakes.

What Are ISOs and RSUs?

Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) give the employee the option to purchase company stock at a fixed price, known as the exercise price. If the company’s stock price increases, you can buy shares at the lower exercise price and potentially sell them at the higher market price, resulting in a profit. The key advantage of ISOs is the potential for favorable tax treatment, where upon a qualifying sale, gains could be taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate rather than as ordinary income.

Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), on the other hand, are company shares granted to employees as part of their compensation. Unlike ISOs, RSUs are not options to buy stock; instead, they are actual shares that you receive usually after a certain vesting period. Once vested, RSUs are considered and taxed at their fair market value as ordinary income.

Know Your Timeline: ISOs typically have a vesting schedule, meaning you can only exercise a portion of your options each year. Additionally, once you leave your company, you usually have a limited time to exercise your vested options.

Understand the Tax Implications: ISOs offer a potential tax advantage, but they come with conditions. To qualify for long-term capital gains tax, you need to hold the shares for at least one year after exercising the option and two years after the grant date. Otherwise, your profits may be taxed as ordinary income.

RSUs, while more straightforward than ISOs, still require strategic thinking:

  1. Plan for the Tax Hit: When your RSUs vest, they’re taxed as ordinary income. This means you might face a significant tax bill when your shares vest, even if you haven’t sold them yet. Some companies offer to withhold shares to cover taxes, but you’ll need to plan for any additional tax liability.  If you decide to hold on to the shares after vesting, you may be exposed to additional capital gains taxes if the stock appreciates and you sell at a later date.
  2. Consider Your Investment Strategy: Once your RSUs vest, you can choose to hold or sell the shares. Holding them can be a great way to participate in the company’s long-term success, but it also increases your exposure to the company’s stock. Balancing this with other investments in your portfolio is crucial to managing risk.
  3. Diversify Your Portfolio: It’s easy to get caught up in the success of your company, but putting too many eggs in one basket can be risky. Consider selling some of your vested RSUs to diversify your investments and reduce your exposure to company-specific risks.

ISOs and RSUs are valuable components of a compensation package, offering the potential to build substantial wealth. However, understanding the details, planning for taxes, and integrating them into a broader financial strategy are essential steps to make the most of these benefits.

At Confluence Financial Partners, we specialize in helping individuals navigate these complexities, ensuring that your stock benefits work in concert with your overall financial plan. If you have ISOs or RSUs and are unsure how to manage them, let’s have a conversation.

Jackson Elizondo
About the Author

Jackson Elizondo is dedicated to making a positive impact in his community, a commitment that led him to a career in wealth management. Jackson understands the importance of integrity and trust when building…

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Exit Planning: 5 Important Points for Business Owners to Consider


Exit Planning is an extremely important concept for business owners.

What is Exit Planning you may ask?

The conventional definition is it is the creation of a plan and strategy to ultimately transfer or liquidate the ownership of a business. This definition, however, is too rigid in our opinion and focuses on the end goal rather than the process. We believe Exit Planning is vital to business owners, even if they are not considering an imminent sale of their business.

The planning done today increases the value in a business tomorrow. Exit Planning or “value creation” is not a one-time event and should always be part of the business strategy.

As Certified Exit Planning Advisors (CEPA), we have leveraged the Exit Planning Institute’s program to expand our knowledge in this area. The following are important points for business owners to consider:

  • The Exit Planning process should begin a minimum of 3 years prior to a potential transfer. Value creation is a process that takes time.
  • To improve your business, ask yourself every 90 days whether you are figuring out how to grow or whether you are preparing to sell.
  • There are numerous exit options. Make sure you understand all of them. There is sometimes value where you do not expect!
  • Business attractiveness is not necessarily exit readiness. A business can be attractive to potential buyers, but have a management team or business that is not ready to transfer for a variety of reasons. Determine what is needed to increase readiness.
  • Surround yourself with the right advisors and consultants. Build your value creation team. This should consist of professionals such as accountants, attorneys, financial planners, and business brokers all who have experience in Exit Planning.

If you have any questions about the future of your business or know of someone who may find value in a discussion, please let us know.

Gregory Weimer
About the Author

Gregory became interested in the financial services industry from an early age and quickly realized how investing and financial planning can have an impact on a person’s life. He strives to simplify the…

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Stock Market Recap: June 2024


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Source: Raymond James, FactSet. Data as of 2/29/2024. Since inception date of the equal-weighted is 1/3/2003.
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Stock Market Recap: July 2024


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Source: Raymond James, FactSet. Data as of 2/29/2024. Since inception date of the equal-weighted is 1/3/2003.
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Should Millennials Plan on Social Security?


Social Security, started in the 1930s as a part of FDR’s New Deal, has been under fire since I can remember. All the while, the program has been helping fund the retirement of some 47 million Americans, with another 19 million on survivor or disability benefits. What started out as a way to ensure elderly Americans had some form of income has turned into a major piece of the US economy.

As we help our younger clients plan for retirement, we often hear, “Let’s not plan on Social Security, I don’t think it will be there by the time I retire.” While we understand where this attitude is coming from, we don’t think it reflects reality.

Here’s why:

  • Social Security is funded by a separate payroll tax (FICA) that comes out of paychecks up until an individual reaches $160,200 in earned income (2023). That means, that for the first $160,200 each earner makes, 6.2% goes to Social Security, with another 6.2% coming from the employer.
  • That’s a total of $19,864 that goes to Social Security for someone who earns $160,200.
  • These amounts are then paid out directly to retirees, survivors, and disabled individuals.

As long as there are people working in the United States, there will be money going into, and then out of Social Security.

“But what about the trust fund?”

  • As discussed above, Social Security is funded directly from payroll taxes. Up until very recently, the ratio of working to non-working Americans had been high enough that Social Security benefits were fully funded each year.
  • However, as Baby Boomers retire and birthrates continue to decline, this is changing. If payroll taxes are not enough to current obligations, the difference is paid by the asset reserves in the Social Security trust fund. As more and more workers retire, the trust fund is expected to be depleted.

By the most recent estimates, the trust fund assets will be spent down by 2034. At that point, Social Security would officially be insolvent.

“That’s what I mean! Once Social Security is insolvent, I won’t get any benefits!”

But what does insolvency actually mean?

  • Assuming no legislation is passed to shore up the program, all benefits will be cut to about 79% of what they are today.
  • 79% is not 0%. Far from it, in fact, 79% is still solid amount of guaranteed income that the younger generation can plan on as a piece of their overall retirement picture.

“That’s it? That doesn’t sound as bad as what I’ve read in the news.”

No, it doesn’t. For younger workers who have plenty of time to factor such a possibility in their long-term planning, the potential reduction would not be life changing. A relatively modest increase to retirement savings would make up for the potential shortfall.

In reality, Congress will be forced to act, there will likely be changes to Social Security at some point. These changes will probably make sure that current benefits are not cut, and that Americans with no time to adjust will not have the rug pulled out from under them. For younger Americans, the fact remains that as long as we have workers and payroll taxes, Social Security will be there in one way or another.


Disclaimer: This analysis could certainly change pending action by Congress. We are in no way trying to predict the future, but we believe this analysis is reasonable based on the current landscape.

Randy Holcombe
About the Author

The opportunity to make a positive difference in people’s lives is why Randy chose a career in wealth management. He is passionate about helping his clients achieve their goals and cut through the…

Grove City, Pittsburgh

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Monthly Market Recap: August 2023


Month in Review

  • Major stock indices broke a two-month streak of gains, with all major indices finishing down for the month.
  • Growth companies regained favor after two months of value and small cap companies leading the market.
  • Bond prices declined due to rising interest rates.

Insight on Inflation

Despite the market volatility, evidence from July’s inflation report suggests progress towards a “soft landing” scenario, where inflation is gradually decreasing, and the economy avoids a recession. In July, headline inflation was at +3.3%, year-over-year, down from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Unlike June 2022, supply chains and goods have largely normalized, with wages and services being the key drivers of inflation today.

Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations.  Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of August 31, 2023.

What’s on Deck for September?

  • The August jobs report supplied additional evidence towards a “soft landing” outcome – more people joined the workforce while wage growth slowed, indicating steady but slower economic growth.
  • A “soft landing” could lead to the Federal Reserve not needing to raise interest rates as high as previously predicted, potentially benefiting stocks and bonds.
  • Investors will now pay close attention to the September and November Federal Reserve meetings for clues about future rate hikes or general shifts in policy.

Download the August 2023 Market Recap below:

William Winkeler
About the Author

Bill has more than 12 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the…

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