Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • Stock Market Recap: November 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks rose sharply in November, breaking a three-month losing streak. Gains were broad based across major markets.
    • Bond markets also broke a five-month losing streak, posting strong results as short- and long-term interest rates fell significantly during November.
    • Multiple data points illustrated that inflation is in continued decline, raising investor confidence that the Federal Reserve is done hiking and turning its focus to potential rate cuts in 2024. 

    A November to Remember!

    November was a month to remember for investors: The S&P 500 posted its strongest November since 1980 (rising roughly 9%) and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index had its best month since May 1985 (rising roughly 4.5%).

    What were the catalysts for such a sharp reversal?

    Investor sentiment had become overly negative – a three-month losing streak for stocks and a 5-month losing streak for bonds. This set-up was followed by unexpected positive developments on the fight against inflation. Multiple readings during November showed inflation rising by less than expectations. Federal Reserve officials also affirmed progress towards normalizing inflation, the decline can be seen in the exhibit below. The positive developments on inflation drove interest rates lower, sending stock and bond prices higher, as investors now shift their attention away from rate hikes to rate cuts.  

    Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of November 30, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for December?

    • Earnings season is wrapped up and government shutdown issues have been pushed out until January 19th and February 2nd of 2024.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on December 13th will be watched closely for comments on the timing and magnitude of the first rate cut and the on-going shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet. At time of writing, futures markets are implying a 50% chance of a 25bps rate cut during the March 20th, 2024 meeting.
    • As we enter 2024, the US Presidential election will once again be a focus. Despite a significant amount of noise, it is important to remember that the S&P 500 has only had negative returns in election years two of the last 20 election years (2000, 2008).

    Download the November 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • ISOs vs. RSUs: Strategies to Optimize Your Employee Stock Benefits

    Employers are increasingly offering stock benefits as part of their compensation packages to remain competitive in the job market. These benefits often come in the form of Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Restrictive Stock Units (RSUs) which can be powerful tools for building wealth if managed effectively. However, understanding the differences in these benefits is crucial to maximizing their potential and avoiding costly mistakes.

    What Are ISOs and RSUs?

    Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) give the employee the option to purchase company stock at a fixed price, known as the exercise price. If the company’s stock price increases, you can buy shares at the lower exercise price and potentially sell them at the higher market price, resulting in a profit. The key advantage of ISOs is the potential for favorable tax treatment, where upon a qualifying sale, gains could be taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate rather than as ordinary income.

    Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), on the other hand, are company shares granted to employees as part of their compensation. Unlike ISOs, RSUs are not options to buy stock; instead, they are actual shares that you receive usually after a certain vesting period. Once vested, RSUs are considered and taxed at their fair market value as ordinary income.

    Know Your Timeline: ISOs typically have a vesting schedule, meaning you can only exercise a portion of your options each year. Additionally, once you leave your company, you usually have a limited time to exercise your vested options.

    Understand the Tax Implications: ISOs offer a potential tax advantage, but they come with conditions. To qualify for long-term capital gains tax, you need to hold the shares for at least one year after exercising the option and two years after the grant date. Otherwise, your profits may be taxed as ordinary income.

    RSUs, while more straightforward than ISOs, still require strategic thinking:

    1. Plan for the Tax Hit: When your RSUs vest, they’re taxed as ordinary income. This means you might face a significant tax bill when your shares vest, even if you haven’t sold them yet. Some companies offer to withhold shares to cover taxes, but you’ll need to plan for any additional tax liability.  If you decide to hold on to the shares after vesting, you may be exposed to additional capital gains taxes if the stock appreciates and you sell at a later date.
    2. Consider Your Investment Strategy: Once your RSUs vest, you can choose to hold or sell the shares. Holding them can be a great way to participate in the company’s long-term success, but it also increases your exposure to the company’s stock. Balancing this with other investments in your portfolio is crucial to managing risk.
    3. Diversify Your Portfolio: It’s easy to get caught up in the success of your company, but putting too many eggs in one basket can be risky. Consider selling some of your vested RSUs to diversify your investments and reduce your exposure to company-specific risks.

    ISOs and RSUs are valuable components of a compensation package, offering the potential to build substantial wealth. However, understanding the details, planning for taxes, and integrating them into a broader financial strategy are essential steps to make the most of these benefits.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we specialize in helping individuals navigate these complexities, ensuring that your stock benefits work in concert with your overall financial plan. If you have ISOs or RSUs and are unsure how to manage them, let’s have a conversation.

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

  • Stock Market Recap: December 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stock and bond markets extended their rally in December, capping off a strong fourth quarter with broad-based gains. Value stocks and US small cap stocks led equity markets higher during the month.
    • Major US bond markets finished in positive territory, preventing what would have been a record-breaking third consecutive calendar year loss.
    • The continued decline in inflationary data and increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were key catalysts for markets during the month.

    Narrow Market Leadership

    The S&P 500 and growth stocks benefitted from continued strong results from technology companies during 2023. The outsized results of these companies pushed their valuations even higher, with Apple finishing the year as roughly 7% of the S&P 500’s value. This is the largest single weighting in the last 30-years and follows three previous years where Apple represented at least 6% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While Apple and six other companies were responsible for the lion’s share of the US stock market’s results in 2023, there are opportunities for broader participation as we head into 2024.

    Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 31, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for January?

    • Earnings season starts, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report the second straight quarter of earnings growth.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady. Investors will be focused on commentary and projections regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Cooling inflation supports a less restrictive approach from the Federal Reserve.
    • The US government is set to enter a phased shut-down on January 19th barring a new spending bill. Bipartisan negotiations are reported as active at time of writing.   

    Download the December 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: September 2024

    • Stock and bond markets continued to rally in September, following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.
    • Gains expanded beyond market leaders, such as large cap growth and technology stocks, with broader participation within the S&P 500, large cap value, small cap stocks, and international stocks.
    • The S&P 500 Index total return of +22.08% year-to-date as of September 30th represents its best start to a year since 1997, and the best start to a Presidential election year in its history.

    The Federal Reserve reduced the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% as expected in September, ending the rate hiking cycle that began in March 2022 and featured over 5% worth of interest rate increases. 

    The market’s outlook largely shifted in early July, when the June inflation report affirmed the outlook for declining inflation, clearing the way for the September rate cut. Since that period, stock and bond market leadership has shifted as the economic and fundamental outlook has changed.

    Since June 30th (after the inflation report and rate cut), market leadership has broadened beyond the Magnificent 7 stocks. The Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Index rose +9.60%, ahead of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 TR Index (+5.89%). Within large cap stocks, large cap value gained +9.43%, ahead of large cap growth’s +3.19% gain. Small cap stocks also participated in broadening, with the Russell 2000 TR Index rising +9.27% during the third quarter. Lastly, core bonds (Barclays US Agg Bond TR Index) rose +5.20%, pulling ahead of money market funds in 2024 as short-term rates begin to decline. The changing environment highlights how dynamic financial markets can be and serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining a diversified approach to investing.

    Sources: Morningstar, June 30th to September 30th . Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, Large Cap Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index, Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, S&P 500 = S&P 500 TR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, Large Cap Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index.

    • Labor market data will be watched closely as investors look for information ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meetings in November and December.  
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • 529 Plans: Advanced Strategies for Education and Wealth Transfer

    When someone thinks about socking away money in a college fund for children or grandchildren, the first thing that comes to mind is a 529 plan – a savings plan for qualified educational expenses, which may include not only tuition, but also room and board, books, and other school supplies.  But did you know that a 529 can also be an attractive consideration for transferring generational wealth?

    The Basics:

    • Money invested in a 529 plan grows tax free and the growth is exempt from federal taxes upon withdrawal, as long as the funds are used for qualified educational expenses.
    • You can open up a 529 plan before you become a parent or grandparent, which provides a head start on building generational wealth that you can pass down to future family members.
    • You can open a 529 plan in your name and change the beneficiary later on; and you may open multiple 529 plans to save for the education of multiple children or grandchildren. 
    • Most plans have lifetime contribution limits of about $350,000 and up (annual and all-time contribution limits vary by state).
    • Expanded use of funds:  Money in a 529 plan can be used for education related expenses at any accredited college, community college or graduate school; for certified apprenticeship programs; for student loan repayment (student loan repayment has a $10,000 lifetime limit per 529 plan beneficiary and $10,000 per each of the beneficiary’s siblings); and for K-12 tuition expenses up to $10,000 per year.

    The Advanced:

    • Contributions are considered completed gifts.  You can annually give $18,000 (for 2024) per donor per beneficiary, or $36,000 per couple per beneficiary, without being subject to the gift tax.
    • “Super funding” – Contributions can be front-loaded, up to $85,000 (up to $170,000 for married couples)– or five years’ worth of contributions at once.  If you decide to do this, you can’t fund the account for the next four years.
    • You can name a trust as the account owner, which will give you control even after you’re gone.  Trustees can make decisions for the account that are advantageous to the beneficiaries and ensure your wishes for the account are carried out.
    • Contributions to a 529 plan reduce the taxable value of your estate and because contributions are treated as completed gifts, they are immediately removed from the donor’s estate and exempt from the current federal estate tax limit ($12.92 million per person or $25.84 million per couple).
    • Another new benefit starting 2024 (per Secure Act 2.0), it is now permissible to rollover up to a lifetime limit of $35,000 tax free from a 529 plan to a Roth IRA.  The money must be moved to a Roth IRA for the beneficiary of the 529 as opposed to the owner of the 529 account; and the account must have been in existence for at least 15 years. Only funds in the plan for at least 5 years are eligible for rollover. (Please note that annual Roth contribution limits will apply based on the rules included in the legislation and the IRS could interpret differently upon implementation.) 

    Whether you want to reap the ‘basic’ benefits of a 529 savings account, or want to discuss the ‘advanced’ benefits – the best approach is reaching out to your Confluence Wealth Manager or starting the conversation altogether. We look forward to helping you and your family with education planning in 2024.

    Zac Saunders
    About the Author

    Known for his professionalism and calming demeanor, Zac is focused on helping his clients reach their financial goals through comprehensive financial planning and unbiased guidance.  Zac and his team support and care for the overall financial well-being of their clients.

  • 2024 Starts Here: Reflect, Plan, and Measure for a Purposeful Year

    The beginning of a new year is an exciting time to reflect, dream, and plan for the future. January is a month filled with anticipation and the good news is that we have control over 2024 and we can be the architects of our year.

    To do so effectively, we need to do 3 things:

    1. Reflect.
      1. To lay the foundation for an exceptional 2024, it’s important to get yourself in a positive state. The state you’re in matters! If you don’t take the time to reflect, you will likely come up short. Take a moment to flip through your phone’s photo album, review your calendar, and take inventory of what all you accomplished in 2023. Putting yourself in a positive state will help you dream and plan for the year ahead with excitement.
    2. Plan.
      1. What does an awesome 2024 look like for you? The more specific, the better! A good way to do this is to think about each quarter and what 3 or 5 things you want to accomplish. Dig into the ‘why’ behind these goals; make it emotional and powerful. The significance of your ‘why’ will inherently help you find the ‘how.’
    3. Measure and stay focused.
      1. To turn your dreams into accomplishments, it’s crucial to establish specific metrics and maintain your focus. In the hustle and bustle of life, staying focused on your ‘why’ can be challenging. Regularly revisit your goals, assess your progress, and adjust course if needed.

    By implementing the Reflect, Plan, Measure framework, we will become active participants in the creation of a year filled with intention and excitement.

    Great Days Ahead!

    Greg Weimer
    About the Author

    At the core of his personal and professional life, Greg is passionate about helping individuals and families maximize their lives and legacies. His dedication to this mission shines through as an individual, wealth manager, and leader.

  • Stock Market Recap: January 2024

    • It was a choppy month for stock and bond markets as volatility rose towards the end of January. US large caps squeezed out a positive return, while US small caps and international equities trailed.
    • Investors pushed expectations of interest rate cuts out, helping to increase interest rates, which weighed on major bond markets during the month.
    • Economic data remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve largely took a March rate cut off the table in late January.

    The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on January 25th, illustrating the progress the equity market has made following the most recent bear market. Along with making new all-time highs comes an influx of short-term noise, making it important to review the history of market returns following bear market recoveries. Looking at all 14 cases since 1957, the S&P 500 rose an average of 23% over the 18 month period following the 20% recovery from a bear market low. In present day, the S&P 500 had a bear market low on October 12, 2022, and recovered 20% roughly 9 months later in June 2023. Ignoring short-termism around all-time highs, history suggests the equity markets continue to rise after recovering from a bear market.   

    Source: Yahoo! Finance as of 1/30/2024; BMO Capital Markets via Brian Belski.

    • Earnings season will wrap up, after companies posted largely mixed results in January. 
    • Banks are back in focus following the surprise weakness in some regional bank earnings. Given the events of March/April 2023, investors have heightened sensitivity to any perceived weakness in the banking channel.
    • The Federal Reserve does not have a (FOMC) meeting in February, so investors will look for additional information from Fed officials following the January meeting. The Federal Reserve surprised investors by taking a March rate cut off the table, suggesting it would happen later in 2024 depending on economic data.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Disability Insurance Planning for Physicians: Key Facts & Considerations

    Nearly 1 in 5 people living in the United States will suffer a disability lasting more than one year before the age of 65.1


    Imagine not being able to practice your specialized medical skills due to illness or injury. The financial impact could be devastating for you and your family. As a physician, your income hinges on your ability to work. That’s why individual disability insurance as part of your financial plan is crucial for safeguarding your earning potential.

    Choosing disability insurance involves understanding the different types and the benefits each brings. For example, there are two categories of disability policies, short-term disability and long-term disability. Short-term disability policies are typically obtained as a group policy benefit from one’s employer while long-term disability policies are also offered as a benefit through an employer BUT are more commonly purchased as an individual policy through a broker or financial advisor.

    Additionally, you can purchase own-occupation coverage or any-occupation coverage. The difference between the two is meaningful. Under an own-occupation policy, a person is typically considered disabled if they are unable to perform the material and substantial duties of the job they were working at the time they became disabled. Under an any-occupation policy, a person is considered disabled if they are not able to perform substantial duties of any job for which the person may earn a certain percentage of their pre-disability earnings.  

    For physicians, it is essential to work with an advisor who understands your needs and unique situation to recommend the right disability insurance strategy.

    Beyond basic understanding of disability insurance, it’s important to understand key factors like the carrier, benefit amount, elimination period, and renewal options.

    • Insurance Carrier – know who you are working with. Currently, only 5 carriers offer “true” own-occupation coverage.
    • Benefit Amount – the IRS publishesd “Issue & Participation” amounts based on your income and existing disability coverage.
    • Waiting Period – the amount of time one must wait to collect benefits when disabled – typically 90, 180, 365, or 730 days.
    • Benefit Period – how long one will be eligible to receive their tax-free benefit. This is typically to age 65, 67, 70, or lifetime.

    The above list is not all encompassing but should be considered as you construct your insurance package.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we work with physicians to secure and protect their income in the event an unexpected illness or injury becomes reality. Please reach out if you would like to start the conversation today.

    Life and disability insurance and life insurance with long-term care benefits are not issued through Confluence Insurance Services. Products and services referenced are offered and sold only by appropriately appointed and licensed entities and financial advisors and professionals. Not all products and services are available in all states. 

    Rob Linkowski
    About the Author

    Rob Linkowski brings more than 35 years of experience in designing and providing quality life and disability insurance programs to his clientele of medical professionals, business owners, family and friends. Rob is passionate about advocating for his clients and not the insurance companies.

  • Multi-Generational Legacies: Communicating Your Estate Plan

    $96 Trillion is going to pass from one generation to the next over the coming 30 years.

    This is either going to go smoothly or poorly, and much of that answer will come down to estate planning.

    Your estate plan is a crucial aspect of securing your family’s future, and communicating this wealth plan effectively to your children is perhaps even more important.

    1. Talk About It

    This might seem basic, but start the conversation early. Don’t wait for a crisis to discuss your estate plan. Start the conversation with your children while everyone is in good health and spirits. Choose a suitable time and place for the discussion, ensuring minimal distractions. This will allow your children to focus on the important matters at hand without feeling rushed or pressured.

    • Clarify Roles and Responsibilities

    Clearly communicate who will be responsible for executing your wishes and managing your affairs if you are unable to do so. If your adult children will be filling these roles, tell them. Don’t assume that your oldest child will understand why you made your middle child the executor. Explain your decisions and choices so that when the time comes there won’t be any confusion or hurt feelings.  

    • Educate Your Heirs on the Structure of Your Estate Plan

    You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

    When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

    • Address Potential Concerns and Questions

    You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

    When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

  • Stock Market Recap: February 2024

    Month in Review

    • Rally continued for stocks in February, with the key development of broader participation- for example, US small cap stocks had a strong month.
    • String of inflation data and commentary from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher during February.
    • The inflation report released during the month (January CPI) showed prices rising more than expected, driven by higher housing related costs.

    Investors are curious as to when the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates. During February, investors recalibrated expectations once again for the start of rate cuts, believing that the first reduction will be pushed back to June 2024. This change makes sense for various reasons: inflation continues to remain somewhat firm, and the labor market remains very strong.

    Historically, forecasting the path of interest rates has been notoriously difficult to do and ultimately, introduces unwarranted noise into investors’ outlooks. The chart below shows how even the Federal Reserve struggles to predict its own interest rate decisions.

    Source: Capital Group, Bloomberg. As of February 23, 2024. Federal funds rate data from January 2016 to February 2024. Forward looking dot plot projections are reported quarterly from September 2016 through December 2023.

    • Inflation data will be in focus as investors watch for any signs of continued increases of prices. The February CPI report is released on March 12th and expected to show declining inflation.
    • The Federal Reserve’s March meeting (FOMC) will be closely watched for commentary around the outlook for growth and inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already indicated a March rate hike is off the table.
    • As of February 29th, 97% of the S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, with the remainder wrapping up in March. With 97% of companies reporting, year-over-year earnings growth came in at +4%. 
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.