Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • Stock Market Recap: August 2023

    Month in Review

    • Major stock indices broke a two-month streak of gains, with all major indices finishing down for the month.
    • Growth companies regained favor after two months of value and small cap companies leading the market.
    • Bond prices declined due to rising interest rates.

    Insight on Inflation

    Despite the market volatility, evidence from July’s inflation report suggests progress towards a “soft landing” scenario, where inflation is gradually decreasing, and the economy avoids a recession. In July, headline inflation was at +3.3%, year-over-year, down from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Unlike June 2022, supply chains and goods have largely normalized, with wages and services being the key drivers of inflation today.

    Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations.  Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of August 31, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for September?

    • The August jobs report supplied additional evidence towards a “soft landing” outcome – more people joined the workforce while wage growth slowed, indicating steady but slower economic growth.
    • A “soft landing” could lead to the Federal Reserve not needing to raise interest rates as high as previously predicted, potentially benefiting stocks and bonds.
    • Investors will now pay close attention to the September and November Federal Reserve meetings for clues about future rate hikes or general shifts in policy.

    Download the August 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: June 2024

    • Mega-cap growth companies rallied sharply higher in June, pushing the S&P 500 higher during the month (+3.59, S&P 500 TR Index). 
    • The rally in mega-cap growth companies opened a wide gap between growth and value in June: large cap growth rose +6.74% (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index), while large cap value fell -0.94% (Russell 1000 Value TR Index).
    • Interest rates fell as data showed a drop in the rate of inflation, which pushed bond markets higher during the month (+0.95%, Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR Index)

    The outlook for corporate earnings has shifted higher- analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to have grown +9% year-over-year the previous quarter. The increased growth expectations are driven in large part by a belief in the continued growth of investment in technology and alternative intelligence.

    This reacceleration of growth expectations has resulted in the mega-cap companies representing a large portion of the S&P 500’s value: the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 make-up 37% of the index’s value, the largest weight since the index was created. The impact of the increased concentration in the top 10 companies can be seen in the difference between the index (+15.3% YTD, S&P 500 TR Index) and the average stock (+5.1% YTD, S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index).

    There are high expectations for future growth in the top 10 companies of the S&P 500: their contribution to earnings over the last 12 months stands at roughly 27%, compared to a weight of 37%. This is a reminder for investors to maintain a diversified approach; markets such as US small cap stocks and international stocks offer lower valuations with an improving fundamental outlook.

    Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The top 10 S&P 500 companies are based on the 10 largest index constituents at the beginning of each month. As of 5/31/2024, the top 10 companies in the index were MSFT (7.0%), AAPL (6.3%), NVDA (6.1%), AMZN (3.6%), META (2.3%), GOOGL (2.3%), GOOG (1.9%), BRK.B (1.7%), LLY (1.5%), JPM (1.3%), and AVGO (1.3%). The remaining stocks represent the rest of the 492 companies in the S&P 500.

    • Earnings season starts on July 12th; investors expect second quarter earnings to have grown +9% year/year. If earnings growth finishes that high, it would be the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2021.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • The Collector’s Journey: How to Plan for the Legacy of Your Treasures

    As enthusiasts and collectors approach the later stages of their lives, the act of collecting takes on new dimensions. Some may be content to sell their collection and pass the proceeds on to heirs, but for others the treasures that have been amassed over the years are now an opportunity to leave a legacy that will continue to endure.

    Here are four considerations to help navigate this phase of your collecting journey:

    1. Legacy Planning and Succession Strategy

    If you haven’t already, start to incorporate your collection into your broader estate plan. Decide how your treasures will be managed, preserved, or passed on. Engage with experts who specialize in collectibles and estate management, particularly those well-versed in the tax implications of transferring collections.

    Consider which heirs will receive each item and why, taking into account their emotional significance and potential for instilling responsibility. If you aim to establish a philanthropic legacy, donating to a museum or organization aligned with your mission not only offers tax benefits but also ensures parts of your collection remain together.

    2. Balancing Emotional and Financial Value

    While financial considerations have likely played a role in your collecting journey, the emotional value of your treasures becomes increasingly significant as you near this phase. Embrace the joy and memories your collection evokes. If the next chapter is one that doesn’t fetch your estate the highest possible payout or the most optimal tax deduction, that can be OK if the destination fulfills your wishes and maximizes the emotional component of the transition.

    3. Philanthropy & Impact

    Consider the broader impact your collection can have. Some individuals opt for philanthropic endeavors that align with the themes of their collection. For example, a collector of classic cars may choose to donate his or her collection to an automobile museum that will display the vehicles and allow them to continue to provide joy for many. Donating items, contributing proceeds to charitable causes, or establishing cultural endowments can solidify your legacy as one that extends beyond material possessions.

    4. Don’t Forget Logistics

    Once you’ve established a robust plan for your collection, it’s crucial to have capable individuals ready to carry it out. For vehicles, consider arranging for an appraisal in advance or identify a trusted appraiser to guide those handling your estate. If you anticipate liquidating a coin collection after your passing, take the initiative to identify a reputable precious metals dealer beforehand. By personally selecting the third parties involved, you can alleviate the executor’s potential challenges in managing and distributing your collection.

    As your collecting journey matures, it evolves into a narrative of legacy and stewardship. It’s important to recognize that your collection signifies not just an investment, but a testament to the diverse experiences of your life. Take the necessary time and consider that at Confluence Financial Partners, we’re here to help. Collaborating with the right professionals can help ease the burden and ensure both your life and legacy are maximized.

  • Stock Market Recap: July 2024

    • Major reversals across the equity market, with small cap stocks and value stocks outpacing the large-cap and growth peers sharply in July.
    • Catalyzed by decelerating inflation data, small cap stocks (Russell 2000 TR Index, +10.16%) finished significantly ahead of large cap stocks (S&P 500 TR Index, +1.22% and large cap growth stocks (Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, -1.70%).
    • Additionally, the S&P 500 had its first daily drop greater than 2% in July, the first time in over 350 trading days. This was the longest such streak of low daily volatility in over 15 years.

    Last month’s monthly update discussed the record levels of concentration in the S&P 500 – a factor that likely played a role in the significant shift equity markets saw in July.

    After the June inflation (CPI) report was released, investors shifted expectations to a much higher likelihood of a rate cut in September. Generally, small cap stocks have a greater sensitivity to interest rates, given the use of more floating rate debt compared to large cap stocks. This factor, combined with improving earnings fundamentals, resulted in the Russell 2000 outperforming the NASDAQ by over 5% the day of the inflation report. This represents the largest single day outperformance of small cap stocks versus technology stocks in over 40-years (chart below)

    Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of July 21, 2024

    Small caps kept up the momentum of July, along with large cap value stocks (Russell 1000 Value TR Index, +5.11%).

    July represented an important reminder to long-term investors about the benefits of maintaining a diversified approach

    • Earnings season wraps up in August: as of 7/29/2024, 40% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, and 76% are beating expectations for the second quarter.
    • The Federal Reserve is expected to use August to signal its intentions around cutting interest rates during its September meeting. The Federal Reserve last hiked in July 2023 and has held rates constant since.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: October 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks fell during the month of October, marking the third straight monthly decline for the S&P 500 Index.
    • Bond markets also fell again during the month, the fifth straight monthly decline for the asset class.
    • Concerns over US government funding helped keep interest rates higher in October, pressuring stock and bond markets again.
    • US corporate earnings season is also in full swing, with over 50% of the S&P 500 having reported by the end of the month. Companies have thus far reported positive earnings growth with mixed outlooks.

    Last Rate Hike? Now What?

    The Federal Reserve held its November committee meeting, where they kept interest rates unchanged. Following the press conference, investors are now expecting interest rates to be unchanged again in December (only a 15% probability of a December rate hike as of 11/2/2023).  If the Federal Reserve is finished increasing interest rates this cycle, what does that mean for the stock market? Going back to 1929, there are no clear trends, the range of outcomes following the last hike is very wide historically. While various talking heads remain hyper-focused on short-term events such as this, it is more important than ever that investors maintain their focus on long-term fundamentals.  

    What’s on Deck for November?

    • The autoworkers strike appears to be nearing resolution, while a potential government shutdown remains a possibility ahead of the November 17th deadline.
    • Corporate earnings season is nearly two-thirds complete, with companies reporting earnings ahead of estimates on average, and clocking positive growth this quarter. Investors will focus on forward guidance from companies as the season wraps-up.
    • The next Federal Reserve meeting is not until December 13th, so in the interim investors will continue to look for communications and sign-posts for confirmation the Federal Reserve is done increasing interest rates. The Federal Reserve did confirm their on-going effort to reverse their quantitative easing (QE) program, which is expected to keep interest rates elevated.

    Download the October 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Building a Secure Retirement: The Confluence 401(k) Service Structure  

    Whether you are a business owner offering a retirement plan to your employees or are an employee participating in a company sponsored retirement plan, managing the benefit & saving for retirement both can feel like an isolating process. Too often we see a lack of guidance or knowledge from financial advisors to be able to serve as a resource to the company or its employees.  

    Confluence understands these challenges with a dedicated team of financial advisors collaborating with employee retirement plans. We have built a comprehensive 401(k) service structure – Confluence Standard of Care, designed to offer peace of mind to the employer, while supporting employees to make informed decisions to reach their financial & retirement goals. 

    Our 401(k) Standard of Care service structure centers on four key pillars: 

    1. Personalized Employer Review Meetings:  “One size fits all” does not work when it comes to 401(k) plans. Through regularly scheduled meetings, we collaborate with employers to monitor the employer plan to make sure it continues to fit the company’s needs and goals.  

    During these meetings we will discuss the following topics: 

    • Plan investment analysis: considering the quantitative and qualitative results to ensure we have skillful managers in place. 
    • Courageous plan design: striving to increase an employer’s benefits return on investment while striving to enhance participant retirement outcomes.  
    • Fee benchmarking: every 3 years we lead an RFP driven process to ensure apple-to-apple comparisons and to help maximize a plan’s negotiating leverage. 
    • Fiduciary guidance: to support the employer and mitigate potential liabilities. 

    2. Employee engagement:  Our education team uses highly customized plan participant content structured to help optimize outcomes and increase financial wellness. We deliver multiple types of meetings throughout the year. These meetings run the spectrum from group education to 1on1 individual consultations, and life stage education designed to meet the employee at their individual career stage.  

    3. Regular investment monitoring & investment analysis:  As a member of the Retirement Plan Advisor Group (RPAG), we have access to their proprietary fund ranking system that aims to enhance outcomes, manage risks, and reduce fiduciary exposure. Employers receive quarterly plan “report cards” detailing investments scores.  In addition to the fund scores, Confluence has an internal Investment Advisor Committee that provides guidance on selected investment managers and incorporates a qualitative layer of oversight to the fund analysis programs used.  

    4. Ongoing communication & support: In addition to the processes outlined above, we deliver a variety of additional touchpoints designed to keep employers and participants informed and engaged. This includes informative webinars, quarterly newsletters, and campaigns to address specific plan demographics or concerns.

    By utilizing these services, employers can have the confidence in knowing their 401(k) is managed effectively while employees have the opportunity to understand their benefits options.  

    Our team is here to guide you every step of the way. Should you have any questions or require further information on how our service delivery model can benefit your organization, please do not hesitate to contact us or listen to our podcasts today! 

    Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. d/b/a Confluence Financial Partners is a SEC-registered investment adviser. Confluence Financial Partners only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. The security of electronic mail sent through the Internet is not guaranteed. All email sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Confluence Financial Partners corporate email system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. Confluence Financial Partners recommends you do not send confidential information to us via electronic mail, including social security numbers, account numbers, and personal identification numbers, unless properly encrypted. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request or by visiting the following link:https://live-confluencefp.pantheonsite.io/form-adv-2a/

  • Stock Market Recap: November 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks rose sharply in November, breaking a three-month losing streak. Gains were broad based across major markets.
    • Bond markets also broke a five-month losing streak, posting strong results as short- and long-term interest rates fell significantly during November.
    • Multiple data points illustrated that inflation is in continued decline, raising investor confidence that the Federal Reserve is done hiking and turning its focus to potential rate cuts in 2024. 

    A November to Remember!

    November was a month to remember for investors: The S&P 500 posted its strongest November since 1980 (rising roughly 9%) and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index had its best month since May 1985 (rising roughly 4.5%).

    What were the catalysts for such a sharp reversal?

    Investor sentiment had become overly negative – a three-month losing streak for stocks and a 5-month losing streak for bonds. This set-up was followed by unexpected positive developments on the fight against inflation. Multiple readings during November showed inflation rising by less than expectations. Federal Reserve officials also affirmed progress towards normalizing inflation, the decline can be seen in the exhibit below. The positive developments on inflation drove interest rates lower, sending stock and bond prices higher, as investors now shift their attention away from rate hikes to rate cuts.  

    Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of November 30, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for December?

    • Earnings season is wrapped up and government shutdown issues have been pushed out until January 19th and February 2nd of 2024.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on December 13th will be watched closely for comments on the timing and magnitude of the first rate cut and the on-going shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet. At time of writing, futures markets are implying a 50% chance of a 25bps rate cut during the March 20th, 2024 meeting.
    • As we enter 2024, the US Presidential election will once again be a focus. Despite a significant amount of noise, it is important to remember that the S&P 500 has only had negative returns in election years two of the last 20 election years (2000, 2008).

    Download the November 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • ISOs vs. RSUs: Strategies to Optimize Your Employee Stock Benefits

    Employers are increasingly offering stock benefits as part of their compensation packages to remain competitive in the job market. These benefits often come in the form of Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Restrictive Stock Units (RSUs) which can be powerful tools for building wealth if managed effectively. However, understanding the differences in these benefits is crucial to maximizing their potential and avoiding costly mistakes.

    What Are ISOs and RSUs?

    Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) give the employee the option to purchase company stock at a fixed price, known as the exercise price. If the company’s stock price increases, you can buy shares at the lower exercise price and potentially sell them at the higher market price, resulting in a profit. The key advantage of ISOs is the potential for favorable tax treatment, where upon a qualifying sale, gains could be taxed at the lower long-term capital gains rate rather than as ordinary income.

    Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), on the other hand, are company shares granted to employees as part of their compensation. Unlike ISOs, RSUs are not options to buy stock; instead, they are actual shares that you receive usually after a certain vesting period. Once vested, RSUs are considered and taxed at their fair market value as ordinary income.

    Know Your Timeline: ISOs typically have a vesting schedule, meaning you can only exercise a portion of your options each year. Additionally, once you leave your company, you usually have a limited time to exercise your vested options.

    Understand the Tax Implications: ISOs offer a potential tax advantage, but they come with conditions. To qualify for long-term capital gains tax, you need to hold the shares for at least one year after exercising the option and two years after the grant date. Otherwise, your profits may be taxed as ordinary income.

    RSUs, while more straightforward than ISOs, still require strategic thinking:

    1. Plan for the Tax Hit: When your RSUs vest, they’re taxed as ordinary income. This means you might face a significant tax bill when your shares vest, even if you haven’t sold them yet. Some companies offer to withhold shares to cover taxes, but you’ll need to plan for any additional tax liability.  If you decide to hold on to the shares after vesting, you may be exposed to additional capital gains taxes if the stock appreciates and you sell at a later date.
    2. Consider Your Investment Strategy: Once your RSUs vest, you can choose to hold or sell the shares. Holding them can be a great way to participate in the company’s long-term success, but it also increases your exposure to the company’s stock. Balancing this with other investments in your portfolio is crucial to managing risk.
    3. Diversify Your Portfolio: It’s easy to get caught up in the success of your company, but putting too many eggs in one basket can be risky. Consider selling some of your vested RSUs to diversify your investments and reduce your exposure to company-specific risks.

    ISOs and RSUs are valuable components of a compensation package, offering the potential to build substantial wealth. However, understanding the details, planning for taxes, and integrating them into a broader financial strategy are essential steps to make the most of these benefits.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we specialize in helping individuals navigate these complexities, ensuring that your stock benefits work in concert with your overall financial plan. If you have ISOs or RSUs and are unsure how to manage them, let’s have a conversation.

  • Stock Market Recap: December 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stock and bond markets extended their rally in December, capping off a strong fourth quarter with broad-based gains. Value stocks and US small cap stocks led equity markets higher during the month.
    • Major US bond markets finished in positive territory, preventing what would have been a record-breaking third consecutive calendar year loss.
    • The continued decline in inflationary data and increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were key catalysts for markets during the month.

    Narrow Market Leadership

    The S&P 500 and growth stocks benefitted from continued strong results from technology companies during 2023. The outsized results of these companies pushed their valuations even higher, with Apple finishing the year as roughly 7% of the S&P 500’s value. This is the largest single weighting in the last 30-years and follows three previous years where Apple represented at least 6% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While Apple and six other companies were responsible for the lion’s share of the US stock market’s results in 2023, there are opportunities for broader participation as we head into 2024.

    Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 31, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for January?

    • Earnings season starts, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report the second straight quarter of earnings growth.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady. Investors will be focused on commentary and projections regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Cooling inflation supports a less restrictive approach from the Federal Reserve.
    • The US government is set to enter a phased shut-down on January 19th barring a new spending bill. Bipartisan negotiations are reported as active at time of writing.   

    Download the December 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Stock Market Recap: September 2024

    • Stock and bond markets continued to rally in September, following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut.
    • Gains expanded beyond market leaders, such as large cap growth and technology stocks, with broader participation within the S&P 500, large cap value, small cap stocks, and international stocks.
    • The S&P 500 Index total return of +22.08% year-to-date as of September 30th represents its best start to a year since 1997, and the best start to a Presidential election year in its history.

    The Federal Reserve reduced the Federal Funds Rate by 0.50% as expected in September, ending the rate hiking cycle that began in March 2022 and featured over 5% worth of interest rate increases. 

    The market’s outlook largely shifted in early July, when the June inflation report affirmed the outlook for declining inflation, clearing the way for the September rate cut. Since that period, stock and bond market leadership has shifted as the economic and fundamental outlook has changed.

    Since June 30th (after the inflation report and rate cut), market leadership has broadened beyond the Magnificent 7 stocks. The Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Index rose +9.60%, ahead of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 TR Index (+5.89%). Within large cap stocks, large cap value gained +9.43%, ahead of large cap growth’s +3.19% gain. Small cap stocks also participated in broadening, with the Russell 2000 TR Index rising +9.27% during the third quarter. Lastly, core bonds (Barclays US Agg Bond TR Index) rose +5.20%, pulling ahead of money market funds in 2024 as short-term rates begin to decline. The changing environment highlights how dynamic financial markets can be and serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining a diversified approach to investing.

    Sources: Morningstar, June 30th to September 30th . Average S&P 500 Stock = S&P 500 Equal Weighted TR Index, Large Cap Value = Russell 1000 Value TR Index, Small Cap = Russell 2000 TR Index, Developed International = MSCI EAFE NR Index, S&P 500 = S&P 500 TR Index, Core Bonds = Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR Index, Large Cap Growth = Russell 1000 Growth TR Index.

    • Labor market data will be watched closely as investors look for information ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meetings in November and December.  
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.