Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • Make Lasting Memories by Savoring Life’s Simple Joys

    Make Lasting Memories by Savoring Life’s Simple Joys

    While extravagant vacations are great, you don’t need to spend a lot of money to make meaningful memories with your loved ones. A slow morning on the first day of summer. Baking cookies with the littles. A great meal surrounded by close friends or family. The best memories come in all shapes and sizes, both planned and unplanned. And while there’s nothing like going on that vacation you’ve been looking forward to for months, sometimes it’s the small, unexpected delights that stay with us the longest.

    So how can you lead a life with more moments worth savoring? Here are a few tips to help you get started.

    Focus on the Little Things

    There’s nothing wrong with a bucket list full of exotic travel destinations or goals to buy that yacht or plan a big family reunion. After all, helping you work toward those goals is what a well-planned life is all about. Still, that’s usually not our day-to-day life. There are so many moments in between those grander experiences that are opportunities to explore smaller joys that, when added together, can be just as memorable or fulfilling as a big trip.

    Start by picturing your perfect day. What do you do or eat? Who and what do you see? Perhaps it’s reading a book, listening to music or getting outside. Maybe you want to spend more time with close friends. After thinking it over, consider how to bring a few of those elements into your regular routine.

    For example, maybe you want to get outside and see one of your friends more often. Consider putting a weekly date on the calendar with them to go for a walk, helping you fulfill both goals. Or perhaps you want to spend more time with your grandkids and also do more at-home cooking. Can the kids help? It could turn into an opportunity to not only spend time together, but for you to share some of your skills and insights with the next generation – doing something as simple as making a pizza.

    When trying to find ways to bring the whole family together, consider what everyone is most interested in. Do your kids or grandkids have favorite activities you can do together? Maybe it’s going to an escape room or planning a watch party for their favorite show. Better yet, take turns choosing the plans for a monthly get-together. Experiences are a great way to connect and they make excellent gifts, too.

    Commit to Unplugging

    Social media has given us unprecedented access to loved ones near and far, and it’s made it easier than ever to share our lives (for better or for worse). But while it makes capturing a moment so easy, social media can also put extra pressure on ourselves and our experiences to be and look perfect – making it that much harder to cultivate and cherish authentic memories.

    Moreover, according to Psychology Today, the average American has five social media accounts and spends an hour and 20 minutes each day browsing their feeds. That’s more than 37 hours every month! Imagine the memories we could create over a year with that time.

    If you’ve found yourself getting sucked into social media, consider taking a break or limiting the time you spend scrolling. Time management apps and new settings on phones allow you to set timers so you receive an alert when you’ve gone over your allotted time on specific apps.

    Learn to Be Present

    It’s hard to fully take in a great moment when we’re distracted, whether by our never-ending to-do list or our phone. Learning how to quiet our mind for even short periods of time can leave us open for moments of serendipity and spontaneity. Perhaps you run into a friend at the grocery store and decide to catch up over lunch, or spot a bed of flowers in full bloom while on a walk – both things you may have missed while checking your phone or worrying over all the errands on your list.

    Meditation has been proven to help reduce stress and anxiety while improving our concentration. And with several popular apps out there with guided meditations, it’s never been easier to give it a try. While some require subscriptions, most offer a free trial so you can see how you like it before making a commitment.

    Enjoy the Moments Worth Living For

    Living for the moment is all about applying that stop-and-smell-the-roses mindset to your daily life. That way, even when you aren’t cruising the Mediterranean or celebrating your birthday with a bash, you might just stumble upon a few more exciting moments and soak up some extra memories along the way.

    Sources: Psychology Today; Huffington Post

    Raymond James is not affiliated with any organizations mentioned.

    Family and Life Events

    June 26, 2019

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    Katie Montagazzi

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  • Stock Market Recap: January 2024

    Month in Review

    • It was a choppy month for stock and bond markets as volatility rose towards the end of January. US large caps squeezed out a positive return, while US small caps and international equities trailed.
    • Investors pushed expectations of interest rate cuts out, helping to increase interest rates, which weighed on major bond markets during the month.
    • Economic data remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve largely took a March rate cut off the table in late January.

    Equity Markets Following Bear Market Recoveries

    The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on January 25th, illustrating the progress the equity market has made following the most recent bear market. Along with making new all-time highs comes an influx of short-term noise, making it important to review the history of market returns following bear market recoveries. Looking at all 14 cases since 1957, the S&P 500 rose an average of 23% over the 18 month period following the 20% recovery from a bear market low. In present day, the S&P 500 had a bear market low on October 12, 2022, and recovered 20% roughly 9 months later in June 2023. Ignoring short-termism around all-time highs, history suggests the equity markets continue to rise after recovering from a bear market.   

    Source: Yahoo! Finance as of 1/30/2024; BMO Capital Markets via Brian Belski.

    What’s on Deck for February?

    • Earnings season will wrap up, after companies posted largely mixed results in January. 
    • Banks are back in focus following the surprise weakness in some regional bank earnings. Given the events of March/April 2023, investors have heightened sensitivity to any perceived weakness in the banking channel.
    • The Federal Reserve does not have a (FOMC) meeting in February, so investors will look for additional information from Fed officials following the January meeting. The Federal Reserve surprised investors by taking a March rate cut off the table, suggesting it would happen later in 2024 depending on economic data.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill
    Jan-2024-Market-Recap-3Download

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    William Winkeler

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  • 2024 Starts Here: Reflect, Plan, and Measure for a Purposeful Year

    The beginning of a new year is an exciting time to reflect, dream, and plan for the future. January is a month filled with anticipation and the good news is that we have control over 2024 and we can be the architects of our year.

    To do so effectively, we need to do 3 things:

    1. Reflect.
      • To lay the foundation for an exceptional 2024, it’s important to get yourself in a positive state. The state you’re in matters! If you don’t take the time to reflect, you will likely come up short. Take a moment to flip through your phone’s photo album, review your calendar, and take inventory of what all you accomplished in 2023. Putting yourself in a positive state will help you dream and plan for the year ahead with excitement.
    2. Plan.
      • What does an awesome 2024 look like for you? The more specific, the better! A good way to do this is to think about each quarter and what 3 or 5 things you want to accomplish. Dig into the ‘why’ behind these goals; make it emotional and powerful. The significance of your ‘why’ will inherently help you find the ‘how.’
    3. Measure and stay focused.
      • To turn your dreams into accomplishments, it’s crucial to establish specific metrics and maintain your focus. In the hustle and bustle of life, staying focused on your ‘why’ can be challenging. Regularly revisit your goals, assess your progress, and adjust course if needed.

    By implementing the Reflect, Plan, Measure framework, we will become active participants in the creation of a year filled with intention and excitement.

    Great Days Ahead!

    Greg Weimer
    About the Author

    At the core of his personal and professional life, Greg is passionate about helping individuals and families maximize their lives and legacies. His dedication to this mission shines through as an individual, wealth manager, and leader.

    McMurray, Naples

    724-271-8801
    greg.weimer@confluencefp.com
    Email Greg

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    Greg Weimer

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  • 529 Plans: Advanced Strategies for Education and Wealth Transfer

    When someone thinks about socking away money in a college fund for children or grandchildren, the first thing that comes to mind is a 529 plan – a savings plan for qualified educational expenses, which may include not only tuition, but also room and board, books, and other school supplies.  But did you know that a 529 can also be an attractive consideration for transferring generational wealth?

    The Basics:

    • Money invested in a 529 plan grows tax free and the growth is exempt from federal taxes upon withdrawal, as long as the funds are used for qualified educational expenses.
    • You can open up a 529 plan before you become a parent or grandparent, which provides a head start on building generational wealth that you can pass down to future family members.
    • You can open a 529 plan in your name and change the beneficiary later on; and you may open multiple 529 plans to save for the education of multiple children or grandchildren. 
    • Most plans have lifetime contribution limits of about $350,000 and up (annual and all-time contribution limits vary by state).
    • Expanded use of funds:  Money in a 529 plan can be used for education related expenses at any accredited college, community college or graduate school; for certified apprenticeship programs; for student loan repayment (student loan repayment has a $10,000 lifetime limit per 529 plan beneficiary and $10,000 per each of the beneficiary’s siblings); and for K-12 tuition expenses up to $10,000 per year.

    The Advanced:

    • Contributions are considered completed gifts.  You can annually give $18,000 (for 2024) per donor per beneficiary, or $36,000 per couple per beneficiary, without being subject to the gift tax.
    • “Super funding” – Contributions can be front-loaded, up to $85,000 (up to $170,000 for married couples)– or five years’ worth of contributions at once.  If you decide to do this, you can’t fund the account for the next four years.
    • You can name a trust as the account owner, which will give you control even after you’re gone.  Trustees can make decisions for the account that are advantageous to the beneficiaries and ensure your wishes for the account are carried out.
    • Contributions to a 529 plan reduce the taxable value of your estate and because contributions are treated as completed gifts, they are immediately removed from the donor’s estate and exempt from the current federal estate tax limit ($12.92 million per person or $25.84 million per couple).
    • Another new benefit starting 2024 (per Secure Act 2.0), it is now permissible to rollover up to a lifetime limit of $35,000 tax free from a 529 plan to a Roth IRA.  The money must be moved to a Roth IRA for the beneficiary of the 529 as opposed to the owner of the 529 account; and the account must have been in existence for at least 15 years. Only funds in the plan for at least 5 years are eligible for rollover. (Please note that annual Roth contribution limits will apply based on the rules included in the legislation and the IRS could interpret differently upon implementation.) 

    Whether you want to reap the ‘basic’ benefits of a 529 savings account, or want to discuss the ‘advanced’ benefits – the best approach is reaching out to your Confluence Wealth Manager or starting the conversation altogether. We look forward to helping you and your family with education planning in 2024.

    Zac Saunders
    About the Author

    Known for his professionalism and calming demeanor, Zac is focused on helping his clients reach their financial goals through comprehensive financial planning and unbiased guidance.  Zac and his team support and care for the overall financial well-being of their clients.

    Sewickley

    724-719-6600
    zac.saunders@confluencefp.com
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    Zac Saunders

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  • Stock Market Recap: December 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stock and bond markets extended their rally in December, capping off a strong fourth quarter with broad-based gains. Value stocks and US small cap stocks led equity markets higher during the month.
    • Major US bond markets finished in positive territory, preventing what would have been a record-breaking third consecutive calendar year loss.
    • The continued decline in inflationary data and increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were key catalysts for markets during the month.

    Narrow Market Leadership

    The S&P 500 and growth stocks benefitted from continued strong results from technology companies during 2023. The outsized results of these companies pushed their valuations even higher, with Apple finishing the year as roughly 7% of the S&P 500’s value. This is the largest single weighting in the last 30-years and follows three previous years where Apple represented at least 6% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While Apple and six other companies were responsible for the lion’s share of the US stock market’s results in 2023, there are opportunities for broader participation as we head into 2024.

    Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 31, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for January?

    • Earnings season starts, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report the second straight quarter of earnings growth.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on January 31st, where it is expected to hold interest rates steady. Investors will be focused on commentary and projections regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Cooling inflation supports a less restrictive approach from the Federal Reserve.
    • The US government is set to enter a phased shut-down on January 19th barring a new spending bill. Bipartisan negotiations are reported as active at time of writing.   

    Download the December 2023 Market Recap below:

    Dec.-2023-Market-RecapDownload
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • Stock Market Recap: November 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks rose sharply in November, breaking a three-month losing streak. Gains were broad based across major markets.
    • Bond markets also broke a five-month losing streak, posting strong results as short- and long-term interest rates fell significantly during November.
    • Multiple data points illustrated that inflation is in continued decline, raising investor confidence that the Federal Reserve is done hiking and turning its focus to potential rate cuts in 2024. 

    A November to Remember!

    November was a month to remember for investors: The S&P 500 posted its strongest November since 1980 (rising roughly 9%) and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index had its best month since May 1985 (rising roughly 4.5%).

    What were the catalysts for such a sharp reversal?

    Investor sentiment had become overly negative – a three-month losing streak for stocks and a 5-month losing streak for bonds. This set-up was followed by unexpected positive developments on the fight against inflation. Multiple readings during November showed inflation rising by less than expectations. Federal Reserve officials also affirmed progress towards normalizing inflation, the decline can be seen in the exhibit below. The positive developments on inflation drove interest rates lower, sending stock and bond prices higher, as investors now shift their attention away from rate hikes to rate cuts.  

    Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of November 30, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for December?

    • Earnings season is wrapped up and government shutdown issues have been pushed out until January 19th and February 2nd of 2024.
    • The Federal Reserve meeting on December 13th will be watched closely for comments on the timing and magnitude of the first rate cut and the on-going shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet. At time of writing, futures markets are implying a 50% chance of a 25bps rate cut during the March 20th, 2024 meeting.
    • As we enter 2024, the US Presidential election will once again be a focus. Despite a significant amount of noise, it is important to remember that the S&P 500 has only had negative returns in election years two of the last 20 election years (2000, 2008).

    Download the November 2023 Market Recap below:

    Nov-2023-Market-RecapDownload
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • Stock Market Recap: October 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks fell during the month of October, marking the third straight monthly decline for the S&P 500 Index.
    • Bond markets also fell again during the month, the fifth straight monthly decline for the asset class.
    • Concerns over US government funding helped keep interest rates higher in October, pressuring stock and bond markets again.
    • US corporate earnings season is also in full swing, with over 50% of the S&P 500 having reported by the end of the month. Companies have thus far reported positive earnings growth with mixed outlooks.

    Last Rate Hike? Now What?

    The Federal Reserve held its November committee meeting, where they kept interest rates unchanged. Following the press conference, investors are now expecting interest rates to be unchanged again in December (only a 15% probability of a December rate hike as of 11/2/2023).  If the Federal Reserve is finished increasing interest rates this cycle, what does that mean for the stock market? Going back to 1929, there are no clear trends, the range of outcomes following the last hike is very wide historically. While various talking heads remain hyper-focused on short-term events such as this, it is more important than ever that investors maintain their focus on long-term fundamentals.  

    What’s on Deck for November?

    • The autoworkers strike appears to be nearing resolution, while a potential government shutdown remains a possibility ahead of the November 17th deadline.
    • Corporate earnings season is nearly two-thirds complete, with companies reporting earnings ahead of estimates on average, and clocking positive growth this quarter. Investors will focus on forward guidance from companies as the season wraps-up.
    • The next Federal Reserve meeting is not until December 13th, so in the interim investors will continue to look for communications and sign-posts for confirmation the Federal Reserve is done increasing interest rates. The Federal Reserve did confirm their on-going effort to reverse their quantitative easing (QE) program, which is expected to keep interest rates elevated.

    Download the October 2023 Market Recap below:

    Market-Recap-Oct-2023Download
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • The Collector’s Journey: How to Plan for the Legacy of Your Treasures

    As enthusiasts and collectors approach the later stages of their lives, the act of collecting takes on new dimensions. Some may be content to sell their collection and pass the proceeds on to heirs, but for others the treasures that have been amassed over the years are now an opportunity to leave a legacy that will continue to endure.

    Here are four considerations to help navigate this phase of your collecting journey:

    1. Legacy Planning and Succession Strategy

    If you haven’t already, start to incorporate your collection into your broader estate plan. Decide how your treasures will be managed, preserved, or passed on. Engage with experts who specialize in collectibles and estate management, particularly those well-versed in the tax implications of transferring collections.

    Consider which heirs will receive each item and why, taking into account their emotional significance and potential for instilling responsibility. If you aim to establish a philanthropic legacy, donating to a museum or organization aligned with your mission not only offers tax benefits but also ensures parts of your collection remain together.

    2. Balancing Emotional and Financial Value

    While financial considerations have likely played a role in your collecting journey, the emotional value of your treasures becomes increasingly significant as you near this phase. Embrace the joy and memories your collection evokes. If the next chapter is one that doesn’t fetch your estate the highest possible payout or the most optimal tax deduction, that can be OK if the destination fulfills your wishes and maximizes the emotional component of the transition.

    3. Philanthropy & Impact

    Consider the broader impact your collection can have. Some individuals opt for philanthropic endeavors that align with the themes of their collection. For example, a collector of classic cars may choose to donate his or her collection to an automobile museum that will display the vehicles and allow them to continue to provide joy for many. Donating items, contributing proceeds to charitable causes, or establishing cultural endowments can solidify your legacy as one that extends beyond material possessions.

    4. Don’t Forget Logistics

    Once you’ve established a robust plan for your collection, it’s crucial to have capable individuals ready to carry it out. For vehicles, consider arranging for an appraisal in advance or identify a trusted appraiser to guide those handling your estate. If you anticipate liquidating a coin collection after your passing, take the initiative to identify a reputable precious metals dealer beforehand. By personally selecting the third parties involved, you can alleviate the executor’s potential challenges in managing and distributing your collection.

    As your collecting journey matures, it evolves into a narrative of legacy and stewardship. It’s important to recognize that your collection signifies not just an investment, but a testament to the diverse experiences of your life. Take the necessary time and consider that at Confluence Financial Partners, we’re here to help. Collaborating with the right professionals can help ease the burden and ensure both your life and legacy are maximized.

    Greg Weimer
    About the Author

    At the core of his personal and professional life, Greg is passionate about helping individuals and families maximize their lives and legacies. His dedication to this mission shines through as an individual, wealth manager, and leader.

    McMurray, Naples

    724-271-8801
    greg.weimer@confluencefp.com
    Email Greg

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    Greg Weimer

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  • Stock Market Recap: August 2023

    Month in Review

    • Major stock indices broke a two-month streak of gains, with all major indices finishing down for the month.
    • Growth companies regained favor after two months of value and small cap companies leading the market.
    • Bond prices declined due to rising interest rates.

    Insight on Inflation

    Despite the market volatility, evidence from July’s inflation report suggests progress towards a “soft landing” scenario, where inflation is gradually decreasing, and the economy avoids a recession. In July, headline inflation was at +3.3%, year-over-year, down from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Unlike June 2022, supply chains and goods have largely normalized, with wages and services being the key drivers of inflation today.

    Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations.  Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of August 31, 2023.

    What’s on Deck for September?

    • The August jobs report supplied additional evidence towards a “soft landing” outcome – more people joined the workforce while wage growth slowed, indicating steady but slower economic growth.
    • A “soft landing” could lead to the Federal Reserve not needing to raise interest rates as high as previously predicted, potentially benefiting stocks and bonds.
    • Investors will now pay close attention to the September and November Federal Reserve meetings for clues about future rate hikes or general shifts in policy.

    Download the August 2023 Market Recap below:

    Market-Recap-Aug-2023-1Download
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

    724-719-6600
    bill.winkeler@confluencefp.com
    Email Bill

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    William Winkeler

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  • Exit Planning: 5 Important Points for Business Owners to Consider

    Exit Planning is an extremely important concept for business owners.

    What is Exit Planning you may ask?

    The conventional definition is it is the creation of a plan and strategy to ultimately transfer or liquidate the ownership of a business. This definition, however, is too rigid in our opinion and focuses on the end goal rather than the process. We believe Exit Planning is vital to business owners, even if they are not considering an imminent sale of their business.

    The planning done today increases the value in a business tomorrow. Exit Planning or “value creation” is not a one-time event and should always be part of the business strategy.

    As Certified Exit Planning Advisors (CEPA), we have leveraged the Exit Planning Institute’s program to expand our knowledge in this area. The following are important points for business owners to consider:

    • The Exit Planning process should begin a minimum of 3 years prior to a potential transfer. Value creation is a process that takes time.
    • To improve your business, ask yourself every 90 days whether you are figuring out how to grow or whether you are preparing to sell.
    • There are numerous exit options. Make sure you understand all of them. There is sometimes value where you do not expect!
    • Business attractiveness is not necessarily exit readiness. A business can be attractive to potential buyers, but have a management team or business that is not ready to transfer for a variety of reasons. Determine what is needed to increase readiness.
    • Surround yourself with the right advisors and consultants. Build your value creation team. This should consist of professionals such as accountants, attorneys, financial planners, and business brokers all who have experience in Exit Planning.

    If you have any questions about the future of your business or know of someone who may find value in a discussion, please let us know.

    Gregory Weimer
    About the Author

    Gregory developed a passion for the financial services industry early in life, drawn to the meaningful impact investing and thoughtful financial planning can have on people’s lives.

    McMurray

    724-271-8801
    gregory.weimer@confluencefp.com
    Email Greg

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    Gregory Weimer

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